The Baltimore Orioles (38-75) will look to halt an eight-game skid when they open a three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox (66-51) Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Orioles RHP Spenser Watkins (2-3, 4.22 ERA) makes his seventh start and eighth appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 32 IP.
- Watkins allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his first three starts despite some mediocre skills. Regression has set in, as he has surrendered exactly 4 ER in each of his last three outings.
- The 28-year-old has never been one to miss many bats as evidenced by a rather pedestrian 7.6 K/9 across seven minor league seasons.
Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta (8-5, 4.34 ERA) makes his 23rd start of the season Friday evening.. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 118 1/3 IP.
- Has fared much better on the road than at home this season. He has recorded a 5.80 ERA along with a 2.0 HR/9 and 4.3 BB/9 through 11 home starts.
- Has been hit or miss lately with three starts of 6-plus IP and 0 ER and seven starts where he allowed at least 3 ER over his last 10 outings, resulting in a 5.00 ERA over that span.
Orioles at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:19 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Red Sox -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Orioes +1.5 (+100) | Red Sox -1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Red Sox 7, Orioles 4
Money line (ML)
The Red Sox are fourth in the league in runs per game at home with 5.33, and they boast a strong 34-24 record in their home park. They get to face a starting pitcher in Watkins who possesses a pretty soft skill-set and shouldn’t have much trouble getting to him.
That being said, -250 is just too much to pay for Pivetta against anyone, especially when factoring in his struggles at home this year. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Earlier this week the Orioles put a stop to a streak of six straight games in which their opponent scored 9 or more runs, including a 12-3 loss to Tampa the last time Watkins took the mound.
Pivetta isn’t likely to shut down the Baltimore bats but the Red Sox should still put up enough offense to win by more than 1 run. Back the RED SOX -1.5 (-125).
Over/Under (O/U)
Most signs point to this being a high-scoring contest. The Red Sox hit very well at home and are facing a weak pitcher, while Pivetta has had issues at Fenway Park throughout the season.
The Over is 6-1-1 in Baltimore’s last eight games, and that trend should continue Friday evening as both teams should do their part in pushing this total OVER 10.5 (-130).
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