The Ball State Cardinals (9-4) battle the Toledo Rockets (9-4) Tuesday in their Mid-American Conference opener. Tip from Savage Arena is set for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Ball State vs. Toledo odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Ball State beat Chicago State 70-63 Wednesday, but failed to cover as 12-point home favorites. The Cardinals have failed to cover 2 in a row, but are still 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games and 6-5 ATS on the season. Ball State’s strength is on offense, ranking 31st in field goal percentage (48.6%) and 33rd in 3-point FG percentage (38.1%).
Toledo beat Lourdes 103-88 in a Dec. 29th game that didn’t feature a spread. The Rockets are also 6-5 ATS on the season, but are just 1-2 in their last 3 games that featured a spread. Toledo ranks 8th in the nation in points per game (85).
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Ball State at Toledo odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Ball State +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Toledo -390 (bet $390 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Ball State +8.5 (-110) | Toledo -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 156.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Ball State at Toledo picks and predictions
Prediction
Toledo 83, Ball State 76
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no value here as Toledo is 5-0 at home. It is rightfully a (-390) favorite, but it is unplayable at these odds.
Against the spread
LEAN BALL STATE +8.5 (-110).
Ball State is 3-1 ATS on the road this season despite just a 2-2 straight-up record. The Cardinals have covered 4 of their last 6 and 5 of their last 7. They are also riding a 5-game winning streak. Ball State should have the better defense as well, ranking 101st in opponents’ FG percentage (41.3%).
Toledo has a high-powered attack but sits 312 in opponents’ FG percentage (45.6%) and 345th in opponents’ 3-point FG percentage (38%).
Both offenses have been strong this season, but the lacking Rockets defense is the main key in backing BALL STATE +8.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET OVER 156.5 (-115).
Toledo is 10-1 O/U this season. The Rockets push the pace, score easily and don’t play much defense — a perfect combination for another high-scoring battle.
Ball State has an efficient offense, ranking top 35 in FG percentage and 3-point FG percentage. Expect the Cardinals to abuse a weak Rockets defense.
Similarly, Toledo has scored at least 80 in 3 straight games and averages 85. Their top-2 scoring options, F JT Shumate and G Rayj Dennis, also shoot at least 45% from the floor, both averaging 19.1 per game.
Their efficiency and the lack of defense for Toledo makes the OVER 156.5 (-115) a strong play.
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