We were stuck in neutral a little in Week 3 of the MAC slate, and kept kicking ourselves that we didn’t at least have one unit on Bowling Green to win on the money line. How nice would that have been? As it stands, Bowling Green picked up the cover. Let’s keep it rolling into Week 4.
Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the MAC’s Week 4 slate, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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MAC best bets for Week 4
– All games listed are Saturday and ET unless noted
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:15 a.m. ET.
Bowling Green at Mississippi State (Over 52.5, -110) – noon (SEC Network)
The Falcons picked up a giant home win at Doyt Perry Stadium last weekend, bouncing back from a disappointing loss in Week 2 when they lost a heartbreaker to Eastern Kentucky of the FCS in 7 OTs. Instead of sulking, going into a hole and ruining the season, Bowling Green picked up a win over Marshall in overtime.
Marshall was just coming off an emotional roller coaster win at Notre Dame the week before, so there was definitely a hangover, as predicted. There was no way we expected the Falcons to win outright, but that’s what we got.
Can Bowling Green avoid the hangover? They’re now coming off a giant win, and have to get the emotion up to a high level for a tough trip down to Stark Vegas while trying to solve the Air Raid offense of Mike Leach. That might not end well.
Backing Bowling Green +30.5 (-110) with the Over 52.5 is a nice parlay opportunity, with the Over being the better standalone bet. In fact, Mississippi State could take care of business on its own against a Bowling Green defense yielding 45.0 PPG.
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Buffalo at Eastern Michigan (-6.5, -110) – noon (CBS Sports Network)
The Bulls of UB are off to a difficult start this season. While a loss at Maryland was expected and is nothing to be ashamed about, a setback in the home opener against Holy Cross of the FCS is inexcusable. The Bulls showed some signs of life last week in a road trip to Coastal Carolina, but the result was the same – a loss.
Eastern Michigan has picked up 2 wins in its first 3 games, including a stunning 30-21 road win at Arizona State which ultimately cost coach Herm Edwards his job in Tempe. This offense has averaged 31.0 PPG, and it is likely licking its chops to face a Buffalo defense that has coughed up 31 or more points in all 3 of its outings.
Buffalo has struggled on the road across the past couple of seasons, going 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine trips away from western New York. It is also 0-4 ATS in the past four conference games, too, while going 0-7-1 ATS in the past eight following a straight-up loss.
On the flip side, Eastern Michigan hasn’t been much better against the number, according to the trends. EMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games dating back to last season. However, the home team and the favorite are both 4-1 ATS in the past 5 in this series. The series trends point to EMU, and the Over is an added bonus for a solid parlay opportunity.
Ball State at Georgia Southern (-9.5, -108) – 6 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Cardinals hit the road for the first time since Sept. 1, a 59-10 loss at Tennessee. Ball State is down south again and looking to prove itself against an FBS team. So far, the Cards are 0-2 SU/ATS against FBS opponents, and you shouldn’t put too much stock into last week’s 31-0 win over Murray State last week.
Georgia Southern, like Eastern Michigan above, posted an upset so bad that it cost a coach his job. The Eagles stunned Nebraska 45-42 as a 23-point underdog, and that was the last straw for Scott Frost in Lincoln.
Georgia Southern is 2-1 SU/ATS, looking to rebound from a loss at UAB last weekend. However, the Blazers are no joke and one of the favorites to win Conference USA.
Ball State is 102nd in the nation in scoring defense, coughing up 32.0 PPG, while allowing 387.0 total yards per contest, and 170.7 rushing yards per outing. Look for Georgia Southern to win by at least double digits, giving Ball State the Statesboro Blues.
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Western Michigan at San Jose State Spartans (-6.5, -120) – 10:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
It’s one of the rare West Coast games for the MAC, but you hopefully don’t need to chase at the end of the day. But, if you do, San Jose State is where it’s at — especially if this stays under a flat seven or seven and a hook.
Western Michigan was dropped 34-13 against Pittsburgh, struggling on its home field. Now the Broncos have to jump a plane for the Bay Area to face a Spartans team that has QB Chevan Cordeiro, the former Hawaii signal caller.
Cordeiro and the Spartans kept it close at Auburn last weekend, falling 24-16. The Spartans dropped 275 passing yards on the Tigers, and they should be able to sling it around on a Broncos defense that allows 432.0 total yards per game and 33.0 PPG.
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