Why Auburn Will Win
– The Northwestern offense doesn’t really work. It has its moments, and it’s extremely opportunistic, but there isn’t anything to get into a twist over for a team that’s used to dealing with teams that can throw the ball.
Northwestern only threw nine touchdown passes with eight picks on the year, came up with one scoring threw in the last three games, and does next to nothing down the field on a consistent basis. It’s all relative – again, the SEC threw the ball a whole lot – but Auburn was third in the SEC in pass defense.
– No, seriously. The Northwestern offense doesn’t really work. Okay, so that’s not fair, and it’s not quite right. It’s not built to bomb away and get into wild shootouts, and that’s by design. Slow things down, keep the scoring low, rely on the defense, and take advantage of every opportunity. However, 736 of the team’s 1,299 rushing yards came in two games – the Wildcats aren’t going to roll up 500 yards of total offense in this.
– Eight. That’s how many times Auburn turned the ball over. The Tigers lost one fumble, gave up three picks in the loss to South Carolina, two more in the loss to Alabama, and that was about it. The Wildcats forced 15 takeaways in the first five games, won all five, and then stopped. They were +8 in turnover margin over those five games, and -5 over the last three, losing two of them. Again, Auburn doesn’t have a problem with giveaways.
Northwestern isn’t always about the turnover margin as much as it is about the timing of the mistakes for both sides. It turned it over three times against Iowa, but came back and won late when the Hawkeyes started screwing up. Auburn can’t force things, but …
Why Northwestern Will Win
– This team has as a way of making the other team force things. You know what Northwestern is going to do, you know it’s going to play at a deliberate pace, and you know you have to be patient, but teams tend to crumble under the pressure against this group.
The D has been excellent in the fourth quarters of games – at least it was until late in the year – it’s a killer on third downs, and it doesn’t give up a whole lot of big things down the field.
– The Auburn offense doesn’t really work. It’s fine, and it had a few nice games against the bad defenses on the slate, but it failed to hit 400 yards in any of the last four games and in six games on the season. That plays right into Northwestern’s hands.
Nebraska was able to get up over 400 yards, but it couldn’t do squat in the red zone and stalled in the second half of the loss. Ohio State ran over the Wildcats and cranked up over 500 yards, but that’s Ohio State. No one else was able to do much of anything, which leads into the final, biggest issue.
– Auburn’s defense is miserable on third downs. Again, Northwestern isn’t an offensive machine, but it doesn’t take a whole lot of first downs and chain moving for this system to grind the game down to a nub. The D is brilliant on third downs, and Auburn’s allows teams to connect on 51% of their chances.
If Northwestern is able to convert on half of its third down tries – uh oh.