The No. 19 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2, 1-2 SEC) host the Auburn Tigers (4-2, 1-1) Saturday at Razorback Stadium for a noon ET kickoff. Below, we look at the Auburn vs. Arkansas odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Auburn got crushed Oct. 9 at home against the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs 34-10 as a 14.5-point home underdog, snapping a two-game winning streak. The Tigers’ only other loss this season was at the No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions on primetime Sept. 19 in a “Penn State White Out” game.
Arkansas has lost back-to-back road games, first at Georgia 37-0 Oct. 2 then to the No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels 52-51 Oct. 9. However, the Razorbacks have exceeded the market’s expectations since they are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
Auburn squeaked past Arkansas in last year’s meeting 30-28 thanks to a game-winning field goal with 7 seconds remaining. Tigers senior QB Bo Nix is 2-0 vs. the Razorbacks with a 64.4% completion rate, four passing TDs, 0 interceptions, a 161.5 passer efficiency rating and two rushing TDs.
Auburn at Arkansas odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:08 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Auburn +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Arkansas -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Auburn +4.5 (-115) | Arkansas -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Auburn at Arkansas odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Auburn 27, Arkansas 24
Money line
Slight “LEAN” to AUBURN (+160) for a tiny wager if at all because I “like” the Tigers plus the points and see a little value on the underdog’s money line.
This is a sell-high spot for Arkansas and a buy-low spot for Auburn. The market is excusing the past two Arkansas losses because the Razorbacks covered as underdogs at Ole Miss and weren’t expected to on the road vs. Georgia.
On the other hand, the Tigers are a more popular football program so there’s more attention and scrutiny when Auburn losses. Especially in high-profile, nationally televised games like against Georgia and in primetime vs. Penn State.
Arkansas ranks ninth in rushing rate, but Auburn has the edge in the trenches and stout rushing defense. Auburn’s defensive line ranks fifth in the country in line yards per play (according to Football Outsiders) and 21st in yards per rush allowed (3.2).
Against the spread
Definitely BET AUBURN +4.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of the money line based on the aforementioned logic. Ultimately, I have more faith in Auburn’s ability to win the line of scrimmage and dictate the pace.
Each team has a mobile quarterback and likes to establish the run. But Auburn is much better at stopping the run whereas Arkansas’s defense is 85th in yards per rush allowed (4.5).
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 54.5 (-112) for a half unit as a fade against a market that’s betting the Over at a 66% clip at the time of this publishing (according to Pregame.com).
I see this game getting played in the trenches and there’s going to be a lot of running clock with each team looking to pound the rock.
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