The Atlanta Hawks (4-8) head to “Mile High City” Friday to play the Denver Nuggets (7-4) at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
This is the final of Atlanta’s four-game Western Conference road swing, but Atlanta’s losing skid started prior to the road trip as the Hawks have lost five straight and seven of their last eight games. The Hawks are 3-9 ATS and 6-6 O/U with the 23rd-best net rating (minus-4.3).
A Nikola Jokic-less Nuggets squad upset the Indiana Pacers 101-98 as 3.5-point home underdogs Wednesday. Jokic was serving a one-game suspension after an in-game altercation with Miami Heat forward Markieff Morris Monday.
The Nuggets have won three consecutive games and are 5-6 ATS and 2-9 O/U with the eighth-best net rating (plus-3.2).
These teams split last year’s season series 1-1 with the home team winning and covering both meetings. The last four Hawks-Nuggets games have gone Over the total.
Hawks at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Nuggets -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +4.5 (+102) | Nuggets -4.5 (-122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Hawks at Nuggets key injuries
Hawks
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) questionable
- SF De’Andre Hunter (wrist) questionable
Nuggets
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
Hawks at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Hawks 106, Nuggets 102
Money line
PASS on the Hawks (+160) even though I’m betting Atlanta plus the points and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover. However, I’d need the Hawks’ money line to be north of +175 to take a shot on the road ‘dog.
Against the spread
Atlanta runs plays through the pick-and-roll ball handler at the highest frequency in the league. This happens to be an area of weakness for Denver’s defense who has the fifth-worst defensive effective field goal shooting and 10th-worst points per possession allowed.
The Hawks’ defense has gotten lit up thus far, but Atlanta has played the third-toughest strength of schedule to this point and the Nuggets rank 24th in offensive efficiency.
Atlanta big Clint Capela did a good job defending Jokic in the two Hawks-Nuggets games last year. Jokic only averaged 15.5 points per game (PPG) on 44.4% shooting in those meetings — well below his 26.4 PPG and 56.6% shooting averages last year.
I could see the House rooting for Atlanta to cover since the Hawks have been a major disappointment so far and Denver won its last game even without the reigning MVP.
However, a contrarian mindset can be profitable in sports betting so the play is the HAWKS +4.5 (+102) since the public will most likely be on the Nuggets.
Over/Under
Injuries have hit Denver’s offense hard but the Nuggets have made up for it with improved defense. Denver has the second-best defensive rating in the Association.
The NBA’s new policy to officiate unnatural offensive moves out of the game has lowered free-throw rates across the league. This is why Atlanta’s offense and its leading scorer G Trae Young have struggled to be efficient this season.
Atlanta’s lower free-throw rate plus Denver’s reduced offensive efficiency equals a full-unit wager on the UNDER 215.5 (-110).
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