The Atlanta Hawks (23-22) drop by the Ball Arena for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off with the Denver Nuggets (27-18). Below, we analyze the Hawks-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Atlanta is 2-2 overall and against the spread (ATS) through the first four games of its eight-game Western Conference road trip including a 124-108 whooping of a Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors Friday.
The Hawks have been one of the hotter teams in the league since making former assistant Nate McMillan interim head coach March 2. Over that stretch, Atlanta is 9-2 overall and 7-3-1 ATS.
The Nuggets also have split their previous four games straight-up and ATS entering Sunday and are 6-3 overall (4-5 ATS) since the All-Star break.
Atlanta beat Denver 123-115 as 2.5-point home underdogs Feb. 21, and the Hawks have covered three of four and eight of 10 meetings with the Nuggets.
Hawks at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Nuggets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Hawks +4 (-110) | Nuggets -4 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Hawks at Nuggets: Key injuries
Hawks
- SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) questionable
- SG Cam Reddish (Achilles) out
- SG Lou Williams (acquisition) out
Nuggets
- PF Gary Clark (acquisition) probable
- C JaVale McGee (acquisition) probable
- PF Aaron Gordon (acquisition) questionable
- SG Monte Morris (quadriceps) out
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Hawks at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Hawks 116, Nuggets 111
Money line (ML)
Slight LEAN toward HAWKS (+145) for a one-fifth unit, if at all, because I like Atlanta to cover the spread here.
Hawks big Clint Capela is very familiar with Nuggets big Nikola Jokic from his days with the Houston Rockets, and Capela has matched Jokic’s production.
In their 16 head-to-head meetings, Capela is averaging 14.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game while Jokic is putting up 16.7 points per game on 48.9% shooting with 9.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game.
Jokic is an MVP frontrunner this season, and Capela held him to 15 points on 33.3% shooting in the first Hawks-Nuggets meeting Feb. 21.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely bet the HAWKS +4 (-110) heavier than or instead of the spread.
New head coach McMillan’s scheme seems to be working with this young Atlanta team, and the Hawks play well on the road against quality opponents (5-2 ATS in away games against above-.500 teams).
Also, we have a fade the market play as around 80% of the money wagered is on the Nuggets, but the Hawks have been brought down from getting 4.5 points on the opener, according to Pregame.com.
BET HAWKS +4 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN OVER 222.5 (-110) for the same reason I’m betting Atlanta to cover: The market is hammering the Under here.
The Hawks-Nuggets opened up at 228.5 and has been brought down a touchdown by overnight action. While I agree the opening total was too high, my instinct is to fade a market this one-sided.
BET OVER 222.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
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