The Falcons made as many changes as possible to the team’s top-heavy roster during the offseason. Gone are LB De’Vondre Campbell, DE Vic Beasley, RB Devonta Freeman, TE Austin Hooper and CB Desmond Trufant.
To replace them, Atlanta used a combination of the trade and free-agent markets, along with the 2020 NFL Draft. Whether or not these changes have a positive or negative effect won’t be known until the team takes the field in September.
ESPN released a feature ranking each of the 32 NFL rosters by using Pro Football Focus’ 2019 grades. The Falcons wound up in the bottom half of ESPN’s rankings, landing at No. 20 overall:
Biggest strength: By many of PFF’s metrics, Julio Jones is the best wide receiver in the NFL right now. Over the past five seasons, he ranks first in PFF receiving grade (95.2) among 109 wide receivers with 1,000 or more routes run, and he has dominated our receiving yards per route run metric. Jones’ 2.91 yards per route run since 2015 are four-tenths of a yard higher than any other qualifier at the position. He should once again serve as Matt Ryan’s go-to target — and arguably the best one in the NFL at that.
Biggest weakness: Falcons cornerbacks combined to allow 9.1 yards per target on throws into their coverage in 2019 — a number that was better than only the cornerback units for the Washington Redskins and Cincinnati Bengals. They spent a first-round pick on A.J. Terrell to help, but with the loss of Desmond Trufant, it’s going to take big jumps from Isaiah Oliver (56.8 overall grade in 2019) and Kendall Sheffield (47.5 overall grade in 2019) to see significantly improved production next season.
X factor for 2020: Dante Fowler Jr. cashed in on his 11.5-sack season with the Rams in 2019 to the tune of a three-year, $48 million free-agent contract with Atlanta. While that sack total might overstate just how well he played on a defense where Aaron Donald regularly draws two to three blockers, it did stand as a career year for Fowler. His PFF pass-rushing grade has risen each season of his NFL career to 73.3 in 2019. That’s a trend Atlanta will hope continues in 2020.
As much upside as the Falcons’ 2020 roster has after adding RB Todd Gurley and DE Dante Fowler Jr., there’s still a good amount of uncertainty at cornerback, linebacker and tight end. Rookie CB A.J. Terrell will be expected to start, while TE Hayden Hurst will have to prove he can be a No. 1 tight end in a pass-heavy offense.
After two straight seasons of NFL analysts gushing over Atlanta’s potential, the team will enter the year as an afterthought within its own division. That could be just what the Falcons need to get off to a better start in 2020.
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