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The Atlanta Dream (11-21) and Phoenix Mercury (16-17) meet Tuesday at Footprint Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Dream vs. Mercury odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Season series: Mercury lead 2-1
The Dream and Mercury split a back-to-back in Atlanta Aug. 21-23. Atlanta won 72-63 as a 3-point underdog as the Under (165.5) cashed, while Phoenix picked up an 82-80 win as a 2-point favorite to push at most shops in the rematch. Oddly enough, the total (162) was also a push, too.
Atlanta picked up an 80-62 win in Los Angeles on Sunday, cashing as a 4.5-point favorite as the Under (164) cashed. That halted a 4-game skid, while the Dream are 2-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5 outings, and 11-4-2 ATS in the past 17 outings. The Under is on a 5-1-1 run in the past 7 games.
For Phoenix, it is still smarting from a 97-79 loss at home to the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday, failing to cover as a 5.5-point underdog. In fact, the only win for the Mercury in the past 5 games came in Atlanta on Aug. 23. The Merc are 0-4-1 ATS in the past 5 outings, too.
Dream at Mercury odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 7:07 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dream +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Mercury -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Dream +2 (-110) | Mercury -2 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 160.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dream at Mercury picks and predictions
Prediction
Dream 79, Mercury 77
Moneyline
Back ATLANTA (+114) as slight underdogs, as it has played Phoenix tough, posting a plus-4 point differential in 3 previous meetings.
Yes, the Dream had a 4-game skid prior to the win in L.A., but it has been competitive in most games, with very few blowouts since emerging from the Olympic break.
The same cannot be said for Phoenix (-140), who have not just lost 3 in a row, but all 3 setbacks have been by 13 or more points, or a losing average margin of 15.7 points per game (PPG).
Against the spread
If you just don’t trust ATLANTA +2 (-110) to win outright, take the little bit of points. However, there isn’t a lot of wiggle room here. Unless you feel strongly that Phoenix -2 (-110) will win, but only by 1 or 2 points, take the Dream here. If not, just bet Atlanta straight up.
Over/Under
UNDER 160.5 (-110) is a solid play. The total officially went low at a 1-0-1 pace in the 2 meetings in Atlanta Aug. 21-23, although the Over (170.5) did cash in the first meeting in the Valley of the Sun on May 18, an 88-85 win by the Mercury in the 2nd game of the season.
The Under is on a 5-1-1 run for the Dream, while going 9-3-1 in the past 13 outings.
For the Mercury, while the Over has cashed in the past 2 outings, the Under has a slight 4-3-1 edge in the past 8 contests.
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