The Atlanta Braves (25-18) and Washington Nationals (16-25) open a four-game series Thursday at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Below, we analyze the Braves-Nationals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Wednesday: The Braves set an NL modern-era run record in a 29-9 rout of the Miami Marlins. Atlanta, which had 23 hits and 7 homers (3 by OF Adam Duvall), avoided a three-game sweep by visiting Miami. The Nationals had the day off following a two-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Season series: 3-3, recently splitting four in Atlanta last weekend.
Braves at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Robbie Erlin vs. LHP Austin Voth
Erlin is 0-0 with a 6.84 ERA (25 IP, 19 ER) in 4 starts and 4 relief appearances this season.
- Last outing: 3 relief IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 K vs. Marlins Monday – Braves lost 5-4
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K at Boston Red Sox Sept. 2 – Braves won 7-5
- Career vs. Nationals: 0-3, 13.22 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 24 ER) in 3 starts and 3 relief appearances
Voth is 0-5 with an 8.26 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 26 ER) in 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 3 HR at Braves Friday – Nationals lost 7-1
- Last 3 starts: 0-3, 13.94 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 5 HR
- 2020 vs. Braves: 0-1, 10.38 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 5 BB, 4 HR in 2 starts
- Career vs. Braves: 0-2, 5.33 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 15 ER) in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance
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Braves at Nationals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Braves
- SP Max Fried (back) out
Nationals
- RP Dakota Bacus (hip) out
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
- RP Javy Guerra (hamstring) out
- IF Howie Kendrick (hamstring) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Braves at Nationals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Nationals 9, Braves 7
Moneyline (ML)
PASS. This game will be handed over to the bullpens rather early. The Nationals’ Erlin won’t last long after pitching three relief innings Monday, and the Braves’ Voth has only seen the fifth inning once in his last five starts.
With the Braves (-162) having to travel after Wednesday’s long 29-9 contest, and the Nationals (+145) having the day off after taking two from the Rays, I’m going to SKIP a moneyline play.
New to sports betting? Every winning $1.62 bet on the Braves ML will profit $1. Every $1 bet on the Nationals will profit $1.45 if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The NATIONALS (+1.5, -110) are worth a small play. They’re 17-24 vs. the RL overall and 7-11 at home, but they’re 5-2 vs. the RL in their last seven. The Braves aren’t much better vs. the RL with a 19-23 record and a 10-10 mark on the road. (Small-play wagers should be half your usual bet).
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 10.5 (-121) is the STRONGEST PLAY. Last weekend’s series in Atlanta – which the two rivals split 2-2 – had three of four games go OVER and the other game PUSH. The Braves are 6-1-3 O/U in their last 10 games and 21-17-4 O/U overall, while the Nationals own a 22-17-2 RL record. (Strong plays should be 1½ times your usual bet).
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| Johnny’s 2020 MLB record | 47-27-1 |
| 2020 overall record (all sports) | 87-55-2 |
| Strongest plays (all sports) | 46-20 |
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