The San Francisco Giants (95-52) open a three-game set with the Atlanta Braves (76-68) Friday at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1.
RHP Ian Anderson is Atlanta’s projected starter. Anderson is 7-5 with a 3.61 ERA (109 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 across 21 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-2, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 9 K Sept. 10 vs. the Miami Marlins.
- Anderson picked up a win Aug. 29 against the Giants with a stat line of 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K in Atlanta’s 9-0 victory.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (24 PA): 4.35 FIP with a .190 batting average (BA), .234 wOBA, .394 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 0.0 K% and 84.0 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. Webb is 10-3 with a 2.80 ERA (125 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 over 22 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Win, 6-5, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Chicago Cubs.
- Webb got a win against Atlanta Aug. 28 with 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in San Francisco’s 5-0 victory.
- vs. Braves on the current roster (45 PA): 1.47 FIP with a .195 BA, .209 wOBA, .358 xSLG, 24.4 K% and 88.6 mph EV.
Braves at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:06 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Giants -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-145) | Giants -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U:-107)
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Prediction
Braves 5, Giants 4
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Braves (+145) since I see value in their run line. However, I’m staying away because Atlanta is 6-7 in September while San Francisco is 11-4 and Webb has been awesome at home.
Webb is 5-0 at home with a 1.66 ERA (3.68 road ERA), 0.96 WHIP (1.23 road WHIP) and a 4.9 K/BB (3.6 K/BB on the road).
Also, there’s been a “sharp” line move toward San Francisco who’s number has been increased since the betting market for Braves-Giants has opened.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES +1.5 (-145) only because it’s on the fringe of my price range and Atlanta’s run line has been decreased even though it has more money wagered on it.
I’m encouraged there’s more money on the Braves and more bets on the Giants because it’s typically wiser to follow the money in those situations. Plus Atlanta is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog.
On top of that, San Francisco’s bullpen has struggled this month and Atlanta can certainly sneak in the backdoor even if Webb has a strong start. In September, Giants relievers rank 22nd or worse in K-BB%, SIERA and xFIP while Atlanta’s bullpen is top 10 in each of those categories.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” OVER 7.5 (-115) because San Francisco’s lineup has been raking in September (ranked second in wRC+, wOBA and WAR) and the Over is more expensive even though far more money has been wagered on the Under, according to Pregame.com at the time of publication.
Maybe this is too square, but this total seems too low even though Webb has been lights out at home.
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