The Atlanta Braves (11-6) will finish up a four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (4-6) Monday in Citizens Bank Park at 6:05 p.m. ET. We analyze the Braves-Phillies betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Braves at Phillies: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Sean Newcomb vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Newcomb has made three starts this season, and has yet to make it out of the fifth inning. In total, he has pitched 12 1/3 innings, while allowing nine earned runs (6.57 ERA) with nine strikeouts and four walks.
- Newcomb spent nearly all of the 2019 season working out of the bullpen. He brought his consistently high BB/9 down to 3.8, and posted a 3.16 ERA on the year.
- He owns a 3.00 career ERA as a reliever, but hasn’t been nearly as good in a starting role. In 56 career starts, he has posted a 4.15 ERA with a poor 1.9 K:BB ratio.
Nola has racked up 19 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings over his first two outings, including a dominant 12-K performance against the New York Yankees in his last start. He carries a 3.97 ERA and 0.79 WHIP into this game.
- After recording an outstanding 2.37 ERA in 2018, he regressed to a 3.87 mark in 2019. He did pitch well at home, though, where he put up a 2.91 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 19 starts.
- Nola made six starts against the Braves last season. In those games, he compiled a 4.75 ERA across 36 innings, with a 9.8 K/9 and 1.8 HR/9.
Get some action on this game or any other matchup in the 2020 season with an MLB bet at BetMGM in NJ, IN, CO and WV. Bet now!
Braves at Phillies: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Braves
- 2B Ozzie Albies (wrist) out
- 1B Matt Adams (hamstring) out
- RP Chris Martin (throat) out
- SP Mike Soroka (Achilles’) out for the season
Phillies
- RP Seranthony Dominguez (elbow) out for the season
- RP Reggie McClain (shoulder) out
Braves at Phillies: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Phillies 7, Braves 4
Moneyline (ML)
Phillies (-150)
Braves (+135)
Newcomb has gotten himself into trouble with too many walks throughout his career, especially when working as a starter (4.7 BB/9). He has cut down on the free passes in a small sample this season, but the strikeouts and positive results have been lacking.
Nola clearly gives the Phillies the pitching edge in this battle. He faces a tough test, as the Braves lead the league in runs, and he can’t be expected to duplicate his most recent performance. Still, the PHILLIES are the play in this game.
New to sports betting? A $15 bet on the Phillies to win returns a profit of $10.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Braves +1 (-110)
Phillies -1 (-110)
The Philadelphia offense should put up some runs against Newcomb in this one. On the other side, Nola isn’t likely to completely shut the Braves down, but he should be able to limit the damage. Take the PHILLIES, and consider bumping the run line up to -1.5 (+135).
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-110)
Newcomb hasn’t been pitching well in the early going, and a trip to Citizens Bank Park isn’t likely to get him on the right track. Meanwhile, as good as Nola was in his last start, he won’t continue to pitch at that level, and the Braves should break through for a few runs at some point. Take the OVER, and hope that the Phillies make Newcomb pay for the free passes he dishes out.
Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]