The Atlanta Braves (30-21) are in the Big Apple and will play the second game of a three-game set with the New York Mets (23-28) Saturday. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Below, we analyze the Braves-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Atlanta leads 1-0.
Braves at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Ian Anderson vs. LHP David Peterson
Anderson: 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 22 IP over 4 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 12): Win, 2-1, with 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 9 K and 3 BB at the Washington Nationals.
- This is the 22-year-old’s first season in the majors and he’s yet to face the Mets.
Peterson: 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 IP over 8 games (7 starts). The 25-year-old is also in his rookie season.
- Last start (Sept. 13): Loss, 7-3, 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 K and 2 BB at the Toronto Blue Jays.
- He has started one game against the Braves this season and took the loss with 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 8 K and 1 BB on Aug. 2.
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Braves at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Braves
- RP Huascar Ynoa (back) questionable
Mets
- RP Dellin Betances (back) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Braves at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 9, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
The Braves (-154) clobbered the Mets (+140) 15-2 Friday and are now 6-2 in the season series against New York. Atlanta is 3.5 games in front of the NL East and New York sits seven games back of the Braves in fourth place.
Anderson has been lights out in his rookie season and the Mets have a good offense—ranked first in batting average and third in OPS—but let me give you narratives on why he’ll be alright in this spot. It’s Anderson’s first outing against the Mets so aside from game film they haven’t seen his stuff yet.
Also, this isn’t your standard first start in the Big Apple on a weekend night situation. The COVID times neuter all social gatherings in New York City and Anderson won’t be distracted trying to paint the town red.
It’s a lot of vig but let’s BET BRAVES (-154). New to sports betting? A $77 wager on the Braves (-154) pays a $50 return if Atlanta beats New York straight up.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Braves -1.5 (-106) is a crappy number at this point. It opened on the plus side but has been steamed up. We are going to PASS ON THE RUN LINE because Atlanta has a sub-.500 run line record overall, at home and against divisional foes.
Over/Under (O/U)
Atlanta ranks first in a number of hitting categories. We’ve mentioned New York’s offense and the Mets are certainly capable of chasing the young Anderson early. Plus, the Braves have the third-highest Over percentage in MLB (58%) and the second-highest Over percentage in divisional games.
I “LEAN” OVER 9 (-110) in Braves-Mets.
A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.
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