The Atlanta Braves (18-20) and Milwaukee Brewers (20-19) play again Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 39 IP over 7 starts.
Anderson is coming off back-to-back games where his line was just so-so (combined 7 runs allowed on 12 hits in 10 IP).
But, those efforts were muddied by high hit rates on balls in play, and on the whole, the 23-year-old continues to give the Braves consistent starts as he did in 2020 when he logged a 1.95 ERA in 6 starts.
LHP Brett Anderson is the projected starter for the Brewers. He is 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 in 20 1/3 IP over 5 starts.
The start marks Anderson’s second off the injured list (hamstring). It comes against an Atlanta club struggling mightily against southpaws (.610 OPS).
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Braves at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Brewers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 5, Brewers 4
Money line (ML)
Atlanta took Friday’s series opener, 6-3, and that victory snapped a three-game losing skid. With the loss, Milwaukee dropped to just 3-9 since May 2.
Saturday’s contest makes for a tough betting proposition because both teams figure to be a little overvalued by their win-loss records.
In the battle of dueling Andersons on the mound, give the edge to the Braves with Ian Anderson thus far pitching better than his surface numbers indicate. The opposite is the case for Brett Anderson.
Milwaukee has the better bullpen, but the Braves relief corps may be underrated enough to have that filter into the line which could add to value on the ATL side of the ledger.
Where this play calls out for caution is in the breakdown of the offenses. Both are struggling (last two weeks: Braves .668 OPS, Brewers .668). And Atlanta’s struggles against left-handers (.610 OPS) and batting on the road (.671) don’t help that side.
Peg a sliver of a lean on the BRAVES (-115) and consider a partial-unit play.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
AVOID the juice-drowned run-line prices.
Over/Under (O/U)
Same issues as the ML analysis. There is some pull to both offenses being undervalued, especially in how their numbers line up with Statcast quality-of-contact metrics. TAKE THE OVER 8 (-105) on a slight lean.
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