The Atlanta Braves (70-61) finish off their three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers (84-49) Wednesday at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. has won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-5 and has pulled within a half-game of the San Francisco Giants for first place in the NL West.
Season series: Dodgers lead 3-2.
LHP Max Fried is Atlanta’s projected starter. Fried is 11-7 with a 3.54 ERA (124 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 22 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in Atlanta’s 6-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants Friday.
- Fried beat the Dodgers with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Atlanta’s 4-2 home win June 6.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 5.27 FIP with a .309 batting average (BA), .376 wOBA, .442 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.2 K% and 90.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 123 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Max Scherzer gets the nod for the Dodgers. Scherzer is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA (140 IP, 39 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-0, with 7 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K at the San Diego Padres Thursday.
- Scherzer got a no-decision in an April 6 start against Atlanta while pitching for his former team (Washington Nationals) with 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Washington’s 6-5 home victory.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 3.88 FIP with a .189 BA, .276 wOBA, .418 xSLG, 31.8 K% and 89.5 mph EV in 198 PA.
Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Dodgers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-125) | Dodgers +1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Braves 5, Dodgers 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+175) for a tiny wager only because there’s more value in Atlanta’s run line.
That said, this is a “contrarian play” against a market that’s backing L.A. at nearly a 90% clip (according to Pregame.com), the Braves hit righties better than the Dodgers hit lefties, and Scherzer has struggled in recent seasons vs. the Braves.
For instance, Atlanta’s lineup ranks 11th or better in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching while L.A.’s lineup ranks 14th or worse against left-handed pitching in wOBA, wRC+ and BB/K.
On top of that, Scherzer is just 1-3 in his last five starts vs. the Braves with a 6.84 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 20 ER) and has allowed 7 home runs in those outings.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the BRAVES +1.5 (-120) heavier than, or instead of, their money line since Atlanta is 20-9 ATS as a road underdog, L.A. is 32-36 ATS as a home favorite, and Scherzer’s teams are 2-7 ATS this season with a minus 51.3% return on investment as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-105) because I think Atlanta’s lineup can get to Scherzer and the Braves are 11-10 O/U when Fried gets the start. However, there’s obviously not a lot to this handicap, and we will just stick with Atlanta’s money line and run line.
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