The Atlanta Braves (70-59) stop by Dodger Stadium Monday to start a three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers (82-49) at 10:00 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1.
LHP Drew Smyly makes his 23rd start for the Braves. Smyly is 9-3 with a 4.54 ERA (111 IP, 56 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K Aug. 21 at the Baltimore Orioles.
- 2021 road splits: 6-2 with a 4.59 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.50 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB in 14 starts.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 4.39 FIP with a .226 batting average (BA), .316 wOBA, .475 expected slugging percentage, 23.6 K% and 91.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 72 plate appearances (PA).
LHP Julio Urias is L.A.’s projected starter. Urias is 14-3 with a 3.17 ERA (144 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 25 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 4 K at the San Diego Padres Tuesday.
- Urias beat the Braves in Atlanta June 4 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K in L.A.’s 9-5 victory.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.60 FIP with a .167 BA, .241 wOBA, .473 xSLG, 16.7 K% and 84.4 mph EV in 42 PA.
Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Dodgers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-112) | Dodgers +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Braves 7, Dodgers 5
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+190) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I like Atlanta’s run line, and there’s just too much value on the money line given how well the Braves have played recently.
For instance, Atlanta has the same record over the past 30 games as L.A. (21-9 overall), and this has been a profitable spot for the Braves this season. Atlanta is 4-3 outright with a plus-26.1% return on investment (ROI) as an underdog when Smyly gets the start.
Furthermore, the Braves are more reliable against left-handed pitching than the Dodgers as Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher in wOBA, BB/K and soft-contact rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES +1.5 (-112) heavier than, or instead of, their money line because Atlanta is 19-8 ATS as a road underdog while L.A. is 31-35 ATS as a home favorite despite being 43-23 outright.
Also, there’s a split in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money riding with the Braves +1.5 (-122) and the public backing the Dodgers -1.5 (-108), according to Pregame.com.
Close to two-thirds of the cash is on Atlanta’s run line whereas more than 60% of the action is on L.A. Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd. Plus it’s rare to see people fading the Dodgers so I’m weighing the betting splits a little heavier in this sport.
Over/Under (O/U)
The same “pros vs. joes” scenario is happening in the total’s market for the Braves-Dodgers with more money being on the Over but more bets are placed on the Under (according to Pregame.com).
In addition, the Braves are 7-0 O/U in Smyly’s starts as a road underdog, and these teams have a combined 30-15 O/U record when both starters take the mound.
GIMME the OVER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit as my favorite bet in Braves-Dodgers.
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