The Colorado Rockies (62-73) host the Atlanta Braves (71-63) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Coors Field with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The series is even headed into the third game after the Rockies beat the Braves 4-3 Saturday thanks to a quality start from Colorado RHP Antonio Senzatela who had 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Ian Anderson is Atlanta’s projected starter. He is 6-5 with a 3.36 ERA (101 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 19 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 9-0, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K Sunday against the San Francisco Giants.
- 2021 road stats: 3-4 with a 3.16 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.36 WHIP and 2.2 K/BB across 10 starts.
RHP German Marquez takes the ball for the Rockies. He is 11-10 with a 4.10 ERA (156 IP, 71 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 27 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K Monday at the Texas Rangers.
- 2021 home stats: 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA (89 IP, 31 ER), 1.09 WHIP, and 2.6 K/BB across 15 starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster (70 PA): 6.80 FIP with a .318 batting average, .440 wOBA, .450 expected slugging percentage, 14.3 K% and 88.7 mph exit velocity.
Braves at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rockies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+130) | Rockies +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Braves 9, Rockies 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES (-115) for a half unit as more of a fade against Marquez, but we are also getting a good price for an Atlanta team that has won 69.2% of its games as a road favorite (27-12).
Marquez appeared in his first All-Star Game this year but is 3-4 with a 5.98 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 29 ER) and 1.37 WHIP in the second half of the season. Perhaps this is a get-right spot; however, I’ll lose money in this spot if he has a quality outing against a Braves lineup that rakes him.
Furthermore, Atlanta’s lineup is better than Colorado vs. right-handed pitching and the Braves have an edge in relief pitching.
That said, the only reason I LEAN BRAVES (-115) is that we are seeing some “reverse line movement” in the betting market so this is definitely of a square play. Sometimes us squares win in this racket.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since I only “lean” Atlanta on the money line and, while the Braves have the eighth-best cover rate on the road at 38-31 ATS, the Rockies have the third-best home cover rate at 44-23 ATS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-130) for a half unit because both sides of the market are barreling into the Over. The oddsmakers have responded by making the Over pretty expensive to try and lure sports bettors into taking the Under.
However, I much prefer Atlanta’s money line rather than the total and even feel stronger about that bet seeing as we have a high total. If sportsbooks are projecting a higher scoring game then give me the better lineup and more reliable bullpen.
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