The Atlanta Braves (71-62) clash with the Colorado Rockies (61-73) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta took the series opener 6-5 thanks to a decisive 3-run 5th-inning rally and the Braves’ bullpen pitching six scoreless innings with 5 K and 0 BB.
Season series: Braves lead 1-0.
RHP Huascar Ynoa is Atlanta’s projected starting pitcher. Ynoa is 4-4 with a 2.90 ERA (62 IP, 20 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 11 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-0, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 3 K against the San Francisco Giants Saturday.
- Career road splits: 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA (39 IP, 21 ER), 1.46 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in eight starts and four bullpen outings.
RHP Antonio Senzatela makes his 23rd start for the Rockies. Senzatela is 3-9 with a 4.18 ERA (125 IP, 58 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9.
- Last outing: Win, 5-0, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday.
- 2021 home splits: 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.23 WHIP and 3.3 K/BB in 12 starts.
Braves at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:44 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Rockies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+105) | Rockies +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Braves 7, Rockies 3
Money line (ML)
Maybe I’m a sucker but BRAVES (-140) is too good of a price to pass up. Sportsbooks typically profit off this logic, but the only teams that have beaten Atlanta over the past three weeks are the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and the Giants.
The Braves have an edge in the three most important phases of the game and that holds more weight in my eyes than how well the Rockies play at home. While Ynoa took a loss in his last start, he had a quality start.
On the other hand, Senzatela grades in the bottom-third of pitchers in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, exit velocity, K% and whiff rate. Also, Colorado is just 8-14 overall in Senzatela starts.
Atlanta’s lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Braves have the third-best winning percentage as a road favorite at 27-11.
BET 1 unit on the BRAVES (-140).
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” on the Braves -1.5 (+105) because they are 20-18 ATS as a road favorite and Atlanta’s lineup is lethal enough to rake Colorado’s pitching staff and win by margin.
However, the Rockies have one of the bigger home ballpark advantages in the MLB and are 26-10 ATS as a home underdog. There’s just not enough value in the Braves -1.5 (+105).
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 10.5 (+110) for a tiny wager because I much prefer Atlanta’s money line and we are getting the worst of the number. Braves-Rockies opened with a 12.5-run total before the market steamed it down to the current number.
That said, I agree with the market’s read on this total because Atlanta is 27-40-1 O/U on the road and Colorado is 28-36-2 O/U at home. Coors Field is notorious for being the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league but it’s always accounted for in the price of the total. Hence the Rockies playing to the Under at a 56.2% clip in Colorado.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]