Three reasons why they won’t
No. 1: A lack of go-to receivers could lead to a void of big plays
Wisconsin is much more well-known for its ability to run the football, but Wisconsin’s success through the air has come into play from time to time. The Badgers do have a talented tight end in Jake Ferguson, but the depth at the receiver position is not Wisconsin’s strength. And having to replace the production of Quintez Cephus will not be easy. Danny Davis III is Wisconsin’s leading wide receiver returning from last year after hauling in 30 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown last fall.
No. 2: The Big Ten West is getting better
Wisconsin may still be the top program in the division, but the competition in the Big Ten West appears to be improving. Minnesota rocketed toward the top of the division last season, and Illinois used an upset of the Badgers to help fuel a run to a bowl game. Purdue and Northwestern had disappointing seasons and anticipate being better this season, and Iowa is always worthy of being in the mix. Meanwhile, Nebraska could be a wild card factor as well.
No. 3: Can the Badgers crack the Buckeyes? (Or tame the Nittany Lions)
Barring any additional crossover games added to Wisconsin’s schedule by the Big Ten, there are two noticeable omissions from the Badgers’ slate. The odds are probably pretty good that Wisconsin’s final hurdle to a Big Ten title, and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff, will be Ohio State. The Badgers gave Ohio State some trouble in last year’s conference championship game before Ohio State stormed back and sent Wisconsin home as runner-up. Ohio State is loaded once again and enters the season as the clear favorite in the conference. And if Ohio State doesn’t take the East, Penn State could be the next in line. Wisconsin may match up better with the Nittany Lions than the Buckeyes, but the Badgers will still likely be considered an underdog against either team if that matchup becomes reality.
My take: I agree with all three but point to No. 3 as the single variable that will keep the Badgers out of the playoff. Minnesota is a challenge and is improving, that makes No. 2 true, but even if the Badgers win the division and have one loss they’ll have a shot at making the playoff with a win against the Buckeyes or Nittany Lions. In previous years we’ve seen the conference championship game against Ohio State be a win-and-in game for the playoff, and this year is likely to follow suit.
If Paul Chryst’s team can beat their Big Ten Championship opponent–if they are to get there–they will be in the playoff. It’s as simple as that.