At one point on Sunday, ESPN analytics had Rutgers football at a 98.3 percent chance to lose in the fourth quarter

ESPN analytics had Rutgers football as a near lock to lose.

PISCATAWAY, N.J. — Early in the fourth quarter, mathematics said that Rutgers football was going to lose their Big Ten game against Michigan. Conventional wisdom said the same thing. So did ESPN.

As did nearly all of the announced 52,879 fans at SHI Stadium who left in the third quarter, assuming a blowout.

But Rutgers did not get blown out. And they didn’t lose, completing a remarkable comeback for a 27-24 win. Rutgers overcame an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter to secure the win.

An epic win that now moves Rutgers to 5-2 (2-2 Big Ten) and puts bowl eligibility within arm’s reach.

According to ESPN analytics, Michigan State was as close to a lock as humanly possible to emerge from SHI Stadium with a win. Early in the fourth quarter, the probability of a Michigan State win was at 98.3 percent.

And even after Rutgers recovered a fumble on a punt, resulting in an Aaron Young touchdown to make it a 24-13 lead for the visitors, the percentage was still at 83.9 percent.

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But analytics doesn’t account for heart or momentum, and Rutgers had both in the fourth quarter.

 

But then, momentum began to swing towards Rutgers and an eventual Scarlet Knights’ victory.

“Often times as a coach you’re so worried about your team. Sometimes you’ve just got to take a breath and say, ‘Well, you know what how do they feel right now?’ It’s slipping away from them, right?” Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano said after the game.

“So you have to play all that into what your decisions are. I thought our guys did a very good job. Certainly, the punt block touchdown gave everybody a little juice but you still had to have stops and run drives. There’s a lot of football in that fourth quarter to get it done, especially that last drive. I think what was it, what did it start with, 7:30 maybe?

“In my own mind, I’m thinking (that) we could use one of those old-fashioned Ray Rice drives right now. We had a lot of them. Just bleed the clock out, and then walk out with a knee. And that’s just what we did, so that was gratifying.”

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Rutgers next plays at Indiana on Saturday. The Hoosiers lost at No. 2 Michigan on Saturday.