Seeing how a two-loss team has never made the College Football Playoff, Clemson is a long shot at best to get there this season.
But that doesn’t mean the Tigers don’t still have some attainable goals.
Specifically, No. 19 Clemson (2-2, 1-1 ACC) can still win a seventh straight ACC championship, though there’s significant work to do. The Tigers need to make real strides sooner rather than later, start reeling off some wins and get some help along the way after dropping their first Atlantic Division game last week at North Carolina State, but in a league where no dominant teams exist, it’s not far-fetched. And N.C. State is the only division opponent Clemson has played to this point, meaning there are plenty of chances for the Tigers to make up some ground beginning Saturday when Boston College (4-0, 0-0) visits Memorial Stadium.
The offense is still trying to find chemistry and consistency (and an identity) while a defense that’s carried Clemson so far is starting to get bitten by the injury bug, so no conference game remaining on the schedule looks like a gimme anymore as the Tigers try to stay in the conference title race.
Which are the toughest games left? Here’s an assessment of that with each remaining opponent in the order the teams appear on the Tigers’ schedule based largely on how Clemson is currently playing, how each opponent is performing, personnel and where the game will be played.
NOTE: Clemson also has non-conference games left with UConn and South Carolina, but those games were omitted since they will not factor into the ACC race.
Boston College
The Eagles are off to a fast start as one of two ACC unbeatens through the first month of the season, though this weekend’s trip to Clemson will be their first game against a conference opponent. Is Boston College really this good or have the Eagles taken advantage of a weak non-conference slate? It might still be too early to tell, but Boston College has certainly been one of the league’s more complete teams so far. The Eagles rank 15th nationally in scoring, 18th in rushing and 21st in total defense. Clemson (45th nationally) will be by far the best run defense Boston College has seen. And Boston College’s star quarterback, Phil Jurkovec, is out for the season with an injury.
If the Tigers are able to contain the running game, it will likely force Boston College to put the ball in the hands of backup Dennis Grosel more than it would like on the road at night in the most hostile environment he’s played in so far. But Boston College’s defense, which is also giving up the fifth-fewest points in America (12 per game), isn’t exactly a cure for Clemson’s ailing offense. If the Tigers are going to avoid their first losing streak of the season, they’re going to have to earn it against a Boston College team that nearly pulled the upset in Death Valley last season. Difficulty level: High
Syracuse (Oct. 15)
Clemson has won three straight over Syracuse and seven of the last eight in the series, but as N.C. State just reminded everyone (snapping Clemson’s 36-game winning streak against unranked teams), the past has nothing to do with the present. The Orange are off to a 3-1 start, though two of those wins came against the Group of Five (Ohio) and the FCS (Albany). Syracuse mustered just seven points in its lone game against a Power Five opponent so far (17-7 loss to Rutgers) but knocked off Liberty with a last-second field goal last week.
It’s clear Dino Babers’ squad is improved after winning just one game all of last season. Syracuse has the ACC’s top rusher, Sean Tucker (134 yards per game), leading the nation’s 19th-best rushing offense (216), and the defense, which is allowing the 10th-fewest yards in the country on a per-game average, is yielding less than 86 yards per game on the ground, which doesn’t bode well for the second-worst rushing offense in the ACC through four games. This is also Clemson’s next road test, and the Tigers not only have not yet won away from Memorial Stadium but haven’t looked good doing it either. But the Tigers are the more talented team here, and if they can find a way to get past Boston College, they’ll take some momentum into a bye week where they can heal up and work on some things before making the trip to New York. Difficulty level: Moderate to high
Pittsburgh (Oct. 23)
Pitt has been its usual Jekyll-and-Hyde self under Pat Narduzzi in the early going. The Panthers went to Knoxville and pulled out a solid win over Tennessee only to return home and lay an egg the following week in a three-point loss to Western Michigan. Pitt’s other two wins have been blowouts against a winless UMass team and FCS member New Hampshire, so whatever. Weak competition or not, though, the Panthers are capable of putting up points and yards in bunches. They’re second (52.5 points per game) and sixth (548) nationally in those categories, respectively, and only Fresno State has amassed more first downs than Pitt among FBS teams.
Who knows what Clemson’s defense will look like in late October from an attrition standpoint, but regardless, the Tigers’ offense will likely have to score some points to keep up. Add the fact Clemson will be traveling to Heinz Field — a venue the Tigers have never played in before — and it could be the stiffest road test left on the schedule. Difficulty level: High
Florida State (Oct. 30)
The Seminoles hoped to start showing some real progress in Year 2 of the Mike Norvell era. Instead, they’re trending in the opposite direction. After pushing Notre Dame to overtime in its opener (a survival that’s looking worse for the Fighting Irish with each passing week), Florida State suffered one of the worst losses in program history at the hands of FCS foe Jacksonville State and has lost its first two ACC games by a combined score of 66-37. The offense can’t quit turning the ball over (11 turnovers in four games), and the defense hasn’t been able to stop much of anything (415 yards allowed per game). It could be just what the doctor ordered for Clemson’s offense, though the Seminoles haven’t been bad against the run (132 rushing yards allowed per game).
How motivated will Florida State be if it keeps losing before this game rolls around? You could ask the same thing of Clemson if the Tigers are dealt another loss or two. But the Seminoles have to make the trip to Memorial Stadium, and if there’s a team in this game that still’s going to have something to play for other than pride by this point, it will be Clemson. The Tigers are the better team, though the gap between the two doesn’t appear to be nearly as wide this season. Difficulty level: Moderate
Louisville (Nov. 6)
Clemson will head to bourbon country in early November for a matchup with a team that’s awoken from its drunken stupor. We’ll find out a lot more about the Cardinals this weekend when they travel to Wake Forest, but Louisville has bounced back with three straight wins after getting blasted by Ole Miss in its season opener. One of those was against Group of Five darling Central Florida, and the Cardinals are coming off an eight-point win at Florida State to open ACC play. Clemson will have to deal with one of the conference’s top dual-threat quarterbacks in Malik Cunningham, whose 315 yards per game rank 16th nationally in total offense. Louisville’s offense is also doing a good job keeping the ball away from the opposition by averaging 33 minutes, 9 seconds in time of possession, which is good for 17th in the FBS.
The Cardinals’ defense has helped with that by getting the ball back to the offense quickly. Only eight FBS teams are holding offenses to a lower conversion rate on third down than Louisville, which is only allowing teams to convert 27.7% of the time. That’s not good news for a Clemson offense that’s having as much trouble as any in America at sustaining drives. There’s a chance both teams look a little different by this point as they develop over the course of the season, but based on what the Cardinals have shown this season, there are enough components here to make this another uncomfortable game for the Tigers away from home. Difficulty level: High
Wake Forest (Nov. 20)
Did Clemson save the toughest for last? There’s a long way to go before making that determination, but the Tigers’ ACC finale will come against a team that’s been as impressive as any so far. No. 25 Wake Forest is the only other unbeaten left in the league, winning its first four games by an average of nearly 25 points. Two of those have been conference games, including a 20-point win at Virginia last week. Sam Hartman has been arguably the ACC’s top quarterback on the strength of good efficiency, completing better than 66% of his passes with nine touchdown passes and just one interception.
The Demon Deacons are in the top 20 nationally in scoring and points allowed while their 36.2 yards per kick return rank seventh in the FBS, so they’re a solid team all around. The defense has also been opportunistic once offenses get inside the 20-yard line, allowing teams to score just 54% of the time in the red zone. The good news for Clemson is Wake Forest has to make the trip to Death Valley. And if both teams can find a way to keep the wins coming from this point forward, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that this matchup could decide which one represents the Atlantic Division in the ACC championship game. Difficulty level: High
Football season has finally arrived. Time to represent your Tigers and show your stripes!
