As regular season ends, Rockets learn 2024 draft lottery odds

The Rockets will receive a 2024 lottery pick from the Nets, while there’s a small chance that Houston can avoid sending its own draft pick to Oklahoma City.

With the NBA’s 2023-24 regular season complete, the Houston Rockets have clarity on their odds entering the May 12 lottery to determine the 2024 first-round draft order.

Houston owns Brooklyn’s first-round draft selection, which enters in the No. 9 odds slot thanks to their 32-50 record. Houston controls Brooklyn’s first-round draft capital through 2027 due to the January 2021 trade involving James Harden.

The odds for that pick are as follows:

  • No. 1: 4.5%
  • No. 2: 4.8%
  • No. 3: 5.2%
  • No. 4: 5.7%
  • No. 9: 50.7%
  • No. 10: 25.9%
  • No. 11: 3.0%
  • No. 12: 0.1%
  • No. 13: 0.1%

Another way of framing it: The pick from Brooklyn has a 20.3% chance of being top four, a slightly above 50% chance of being No. 9, and a probability of just below 30% of being No. 10 or lower.

As for the Rockets (41-41), Houston likely enters the lottery with the No. 12 odds slot. Unless that pick lands in the top four, it goes to Oklahoma City as part of the Russell Westbrook trade from 2019.

However, unlike the pick headed from Brooklyn to Houston, the one slated to go from Houston to Oklahoma City does at least have a chance to not convey, depending on the lottery outcome.

Here’s a look at those percentages, should Houston stay at No. 12:

  • No. 1: 1.5%
  • No. 2: 1.7%
  • No. 3: 1.9%
  • No. 4: 2.1%
  • No. 12 or lower (pick goes to OKC): 92.9%

There is a small chance Houston could climb to the No. 11 odds slot if the Chicago defeats Miami in this week’s Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Since both the Bulls (39-43) had a worse record than the Rockets, they own higher odds slots. However, that would change if it unexpectedly makes the playoffs.

In that remote No. 11 odds slot scenario, the odds would be:

  • No. 1: 2.0%
  • No. 2: 2.2%
  • No. 3: 2.4%
  • No. 4: 2.8%
  • No. 11 or lower (pick to OKC): 90.6%

Whether Houston enters at No. 11 or No. 12 in the order, the odds are greater than 90% that the pick will go to the Thunder.

That said, it’s worth noting that the incoming selection from Brooklyn is already guaranteed to be higher than the outgoing pick to Oklahoma City, since the only way Houston’s pick could be ahead of Brooklyn’s selection is if Houston wins one of the four lottery selections. In that scenario, the Rockets would own both picks.

Houston also gets a 2024 second-round draft pick from Golden State (46-36), which will be at No. 43, 44 or 45 in the overall order. That will be decided by a random draw tiebreaker at a latest date.

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