If the epic roster teardown of 2019 is to be a success, the biggest piece is for the endless cycle of mediocre Dolphins quarterbacks to end in 20 A.D. (twenty years after Dan). We’ve been hearing for months now about how the Dolphins are so infatuated with Tua Tagovailoa that they were going to dedicate an offseason to set up moves to acquire him.
The term that many like to use ad nauseam is “tanking.”
The #Dolphins have the #NFLDraft capital to make upcoming moves but what does this mean about the evaluation of #JoshRosen? pic.twitter.com/a0QBuwGSce
— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) September 3, 2019
A bit has happened since then.
First off, the Bengals have dropped 10 straight, while the Dolphins won two in a row before dropping a rivalry game to the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins are less talented but more competitive than the Cincinnati Bengals and ultimately Miami will win more games than Cincinnati. The Bengals – not the Dolphins – will get the first crack at a quarterback in the upcoming draft, barring a trade back scenario that seems quite unlikely. Book it.
Secondly, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has ascended into a media darling. More importantly, he’s ascended into kind of a stud. Burrow has padded his resume with wins against stiff competition, most notably carrying his Tigers to victory in Tuscaloosa over the juggernaut Crimson Tide. He has taken college football by storm, and there’s reason to believe he will be the first quarterback taken in the 2020 NFL Draft — likely by the Bengals.
What makes Burrow QB1 in April’s draft even more likely is the hip injury Tagovailoa sustained in Saturday’s beatdown of Mississippi State. Tua’s season is over and he’ll have a long road of rehab ahead of him to play football in 2020 and beyond. Thankfully, at this moment in time, it appears he will be able to make a full recovery and play again — something that wasn’t so clear on Saturday afternoon.
Tua Tagovailoa underwent on his surgery on his right hip this morning in Houston and, according to Alabama, “his prognosis is excellent.”
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 18, 2019
This complicates things for, well, everyone involved. As it pertains to the Dolphins and Chris Grier, it makes things even more interesting given what we know. If what Rich Eisen heard was correct and Miami is infatuated with Tua, there are some causes and effects to note: How does the injury affect Tagovailoa’s draft stock? And how does this injury impact the Dolphins’ pursuit of him?
Burrow’s rise in popularity coupled with Tua’s injury will undoubtedly result in Tagovailoa not being taken first overall in April’s draft, something that was near consensus a few months ago. This benefits Miami. If the “excellent” prognosis is accurate, will a team, notably the Dolphins, still draft him in Round 1? That’s where things get muddied.
On one hand, Miami could still take him with its first of three first-round selections; a pick that figures to be in the top five at this point. Now that Tua is injured, they shouldn’t have to trade any assets to get him, despite them winning a few games. This is a wild reality that didn’t seem possible before the injury. On the other hand, however, is the thought of waiting to grab him with one of the team’s later picks. This must have crossed the Dolphins’ decision-makers minds by now. Grab a blue-chip talent at the top of Round 1 and get their coveted quarterback? Grier has to be salivating.
Would Grier risk that, though? Would he risk losing out on his presumed ultimate target after all the work he put in to deconstruct a roster to build back up around his darling quarterback? Would he risk letting Tagovailoa slide down the draft board to the end of Round 1 where a certain division rival has an old quarterback without a contract in 2020. Nothing would be more tragic for Dolphins fans than seeing that come to fruition.
“To me, this lines up so well for New England.”
–@RealTannenbaum on the potential outcomes for Tua Tagovailoa after his hip injury on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/nqe0tNvM3D
— Golic and Wingo (@GolicAndWingo) November 18, 2019
Ultimately, Grier must trust his scouts. He must trust the doctors — both the ones working on Tua now and in the immediate future, as well as team doctors – to properly treat, diagnose, and clear the quarterback. We don’t need another Brees situation on our hands. And lastly, Grier must trust his eyes and his gut in regards to his decision. He’s moved masterfully in the offseason and during the season itself to secure assets for April. He must now have the intestinal fortitude to have the conviction to make a tough and unfathomably critical decision in April.
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