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Five of the top 10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in the field this week at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida, for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Eight-time champion and 11th-ranked golfer Tiger Woods won’t be on hand, as he ensures his body is in peak shape for next month’s Masters. Below, we look at the golf betting odds and make our picks to win the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The key stats for the 7,454-yard, par-72 Bay Hill Club and Lodge are:
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Opportunities Gained
- Sand Saves Gained
- Par 3 Efficiency: 200-225 Yards
- Proximity from 200-plus Yards
My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field.
Betting Picks – Tier 1
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 a.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+500)
No one in the field with a minimum of 10 rounds played at Bay Hill has gained more strokes per round than McIlroy’s 2.78, according to Data Golf. The 2018 champ followed it up with a T-6 finish last year, and he tied for fourth in 2017.
He has finished in the top five in each of his last six worldwide events, including a win at the WGC-HSBC Champions. He’ll defend his 2019 Players Championship crown next week.
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Brooks Koepka (+2800)
The books seem to be toying with us by continuing to offer these lofty odds on the former world No. 1. He missed the cut at last week’s Honda Classic following a T-43 at the Genesis Invitational, and has had poor results here with a missed cut in 2017 and 2019. Auto-betting him at these odds is just a good overall strategy because as soon as he wins again, he’s back down to less than 10/1.
Betting Picks – Tier 2
Joaquin Niemann (+8000)
Niemann ranks second to only McIlroy in my stat model. He’s fifth in the field in opportunities gained and 11th in Proximity from the key distance. He tied for 46th last year, but has since picked up his first PGA Tour win.
Francesco Molinari (+9000)
A $10 bet on the defending champ would return a profit of $900 if he were to go back-to-back. The last golfer to win at Bay Hill in consecutive years was Matt Every in 2014 and 2015, and needless to say, Molinari is the far more accomplished golfer. He ranks second to McIlroy with 2.21 strokes gained per round at this venue in 28 career rounds played.
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Betting Picks – Longshots
Charles Howell III (+10000)
Howell has played 72 career rounds at Bay Hill to rank fourth in the field. He’s coming off a T-53 finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship following a T-59 at the Genesis Invitational, but his experience is worth a shot at these long odds.
Sebastian Munoz (+10000)
Like Niemann, Munoz has a win already in the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. He comes into the week ranked third in my stat model and 76th in the Golfweek rankings. He leads the field in Opportunities Gained and ranks fifth in scoring on the long par 3s.
Top odds
| Player | Odds |
| Rory McIlroy | +500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1600 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Adam Scott | +2200 |
| Patrick Reed | +2500 |
| Sungjae Im | +2500 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2800 |
| Byeong Hun An | +3300 |
| Jason Day | +3300 |
| Rickie Fowler | +3300 |
| Tony Finau | +3300 |
| Henrik Stenson | +4000 |
| Justin Rose | +4000 |
| Marc Leishman | +4000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +4500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +4500 |
| Tyrell Hatton | +45000 |
| Billy Horschel | +5000 |
| Bubba Watson | +5000 |
| Lee Westwood | +5000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +5000 |
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