Arkansas’ season doesn’t exactly hinge on its outcome against Mississippi State on Saturday. But it isn’t far off, either.
Fresh off a bye week, Arkansas is healthy and ready to become bowl-eligible (in a full 12-game season) for the first time since 2016. A win against the Bulldogs in Week 10 in Fayetteville would do that. A loss, though, might make the sledding awfully tough in the final three weeks.
The good news for Arkansas faithful is the Razorbacks have, per ESPN’s Football Power Index, a 59.5% chance of beating Mississippi State. The wild thing is, though, Mike Leach’s team is actually the higher rated team. In the Worldwide Leader’s algorithm, anyway.
Mississippi State checked in at No. 28 in the FPI, jumping six spots after beating Kentucky over the weekend. Arkansas, which was off, went up two spots, as well, to No. 31. The difference is largely negligible, of course, but one of which to note. Mississippi State’s chances in the game grew higher after it knocked off the Wildcats.
ESPN’s data projects both teams to finish 7-5. Arkansas sits at 5-3 now and Mississippi State is the same. The Bulldogs are, though, are two games better in SEC play having beaten Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, as well. Arkansas’ lone in-conference win came against the Aggies back in September.
The Bulldogs winning Saturday would be an upset, but only by the most modest calculations. But Arkansas, with Alabama and LSU (on the road) the following two weeks, really could breath easier about the postseason if it avoided any such result.
Anticipate a tight one inside Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.