The Arizona Diamondbacks (0-1) play the San Diego Padres (1-0) Friday at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Diamondbacks climbed back from five runs down to take the lead in the top of the 5th in Thursday’s season-opener but San Diego scored once in the 6th and again in the 7th to win Game 1 of the series 8-7.
Season series: Padres 1-0.
RHP Merrill Kelly starts Friday for the Diamondbacks. Kelly was 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 over 31 1/3 IP spanning 5 starts in 2020.
- 2020 vs. Padres: 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 2 BB) in 2 starts.
- 2021 Spring Training: 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 11 ER, 17 K, 6 BB) in 5 starts.
LHP Blake Snell makes his Padres debut tonight after spending the first five seasons of his career with the Tampa Bay Rays. He won the AL Cy Young in 2018 while winning 21 games.
Snell was 4-2 last year with a 3.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 50 IP across 11 starts.
- 2021 Spring Training: 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 13 K, 4 BB) across 5 starts.
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-115) | Padres -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Padres 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a “LEAN” toward the Diamondbacks (+180) because Kelly has been fantastic in his two years in MLB against the Padres and there’s a lot more value in the underdog than the favorite.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-115) for a half-unit because each of their previous three games against the Padres were decided by only one run and Arizona is 4-1 ATS vs. San Diego in the last five meetings.
Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joes” game in the betting market; according to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money is on Arizona’s run line while 88% of the tickets are on San Diego’s run line.
Typically, the money column is considered the “sharp” side of the market so my preference is to follow the money and fade the crowd of people.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE UNDER 8 (-105) for a half-unit because while Kelly has been awesome against San Diego, the Diamondbacks hitters were terrible against left-handed pitching last season.
Arizona was bottom-5 in the Majors in 2020 vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and strikeouts per walk rate.
Snell is a legit Ace in the prime of his career, motivated after last year’s World Series loss and had a dominant Spring Training. Kelly is also 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings pitched in his last five starts against San Diego.
Finally, the Diamondbacks and Padres played to the Under in seven of their last 10 meetings, which makes UNDER 7.5 (+110) on the alternate total intriguing.
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