The Arizona Diamondbacks meet the San Diego Padres in the 2021 season opener Thursday at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Madison Bumgarner is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He was 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.48 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9 over 41 2/3 IP spanning nine starts in 2020. Last season, MadBum was hammered by the Padres, going 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA in two starts while serving up four home runs across just 7 2/3 combined innings.
RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He was 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.01 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 over 76 IP and 12 starts in 2020 for the Chicago Cubs. Darvish will be facing the D-Backs for the first time since April 27, 2019, when he allowed one earned run on 2 hits and 4 walks, with 8 strikeouts across six innings in a win for the Cubs.
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Padres -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (+105) | Padres -1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Padres 7, Diamondbacks 3
Money line (ML)
The Padres (-250) will cost you two and a half times your potential return, and that’s not a good long-term betting strategy, especially in MLB.
Try and limit yourself to -175 or -180, and make few exceptions throughout the season. Over the long term you’ll have a lot fewer peaks and valleys.
PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The PADRES -1.5 (-125) are a much better value on the run line. San Diego was in an arms race, literally, with the Los Angeles Dodgers during the offseason, and it’s going to be a fun race to watch unfold this season.
The Diamondbacks cannot be trusted, especially with Bumgarner on the bump. He lost a lot of velocity last season, and he looked like he was throwing batting practice more often than not. The Padres treated him especially poorly, rocketing four balls into the seats last season in just two starts.
Arizona is also just 2-6 in their past eight games at Petco.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 8.5 (-110) is a good play, as the Padres offense should be able to throw up some big numbers against Bumgarner.
The same cannot be said for the Diamondbacks against Darvish, but the Padres should put up enough offense to inch the total Over.
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