The Arizona Diamondbacks (5-9) and San Diego Padres (8-6) continue their NL West rivalry series Saturday at Petco Park at 9:10 p.m. ET. We analyze the Diamondbacks-Padres betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
In Friday’s opener of this three-game set, the Padres shut out the Diamondbacks 3-0. San Diego has now won four of its five meetings with Arizona this season.
Diamondbacks at Padres: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Merrill Kelly at RHP Chris Paddack
Kelly has dazzled through two starts with a 2.63 ERA and a ridiculously low 0.66 BB/9.
- However, digging deeper shows that he’s struck out just 7.24 batters per nine innings while also allowing three home runs. So far, he’s danced around the flaws in his skills during a small sample size.
- He’s also stumbled to a 4.30 ERA over three career starts in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Paddack has suffered similar flaws behind his 2.65 ERA through his first three starts of 2020: He’s struck out just 7.94 batters per nine.
- However, the owner of a 9.79 K/9 from 2019 is more trustworthy with forcing empty swings, and he’s still kept up his elite control (one walk in 17 innings this year).
- He’s thrived in his only home park with a 2.93 ERA, 77 strikeouts and just 11 walks over 73 2/3 frames (13 starts), and the righty has mowed down the D-backs with a 0.79 ERA in four meetings.
Get some action on this game or any other matchup in the 2020 season with an MLB bet at BetMGM in NJ, IN, CO and WV. Bet now!
Diamondbacks at Padres: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Diamondbacks
- None that impact Saturday’s action
Padres
- 1B Eric Hosmer (stomach illness) questionable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Diamondbacks at Padres: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:45 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Padres 5, Diamondbacks 2
Moneyline (ML)
- Diamondbacks +145
- Padres -162
Given the mismatch of starting pitchers, these lines have stretched out to the extremes after Friday. The Padres line isn’t going to reward much, but it’s the wise play if you’re doing the moneyline, considering they’re 5-3 at home this year and have dominated the season series so far.
Fine, if you’re looking for a sure thing, BET PADRES (-162).
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Padres would return a profit of $6.17.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Diamondbacks +1 (-106)
- Padres -1 (-115)
The whole number of the spread is not the wisest use of a run line bet. I would consider teasing it up to a BET of PADRES -1.5 (+125) — my preference and an easier cover — or -2 (+165).
A winning $10 bet on the Padres -1.5 (+125) would return a profit of $12.50. The Padres -2 (+165) would bring back an additional $16.50.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 7.5 (-110)
- Under 7.5 (-110)
The Under has hit in four of the five matchups so far this year. If you want the safe cash, BET UNDER 7.5 (-110). For a bigger risk-reward ticket, I’d consider BETTING UNDER 7 (+120).
A winning $10 bet on Under 7.5 (-110) would return a profit of $9.09. The Under 7 (+120) would return an extra $12.
Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Follow @TeamHeaney on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]