The Philadelphia Phillies (64-64) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-86) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split the first two games with Arizona winning the opener 8-7 and Philly winning Friday 7-6 in extra innings.
Season series: D-Backs lead 4-1.
RHP Humberto Meija makes his second start for the D-Backs. Meija earned a no-decision in his first start Monday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Arizona’s 6-5 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
RHP Kyle Gibson gets the nod for the Phillies. Gibson is 9-5 with a 3.06 ERA (144 IP, 49 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts and one relief appearance for Philly and the Texas Rangers.
- Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sunday at the San Diego Padres.
- Gibson lost at the D-Backs Aug. 17, 3-2, with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- Stats since joining Philly: 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA (31 IP, 13 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in four starts and one bullpen outing.
Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Phillies -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 1
Money line (ML)
PASS.
Even though I “lean” Philly -205 is too expensive given their 3-7 record over the last 10 games, which includes them getting swept in a three-game series at Arizona from Aug. 17-19.
I also don’t see a lot of value in backing the D-Backs in this spot because the Phillies have a winning record at home and against righty starters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+105) for a half unit only because there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market as both the pros and the Joes are taking Philly’s run line but the line is moving in Arizona’s direction.
The D-Backs are just 10-15 ATS as road underdogs facing a righty starter with a minus-22.2% return on investment and an average score of 3.9-6.4.
Arizona’s bullpen is the only one in the majors that has a lower WAR than Philly’s and the D-Backs relievers also rank dead-last in left-on-base percentage and FIP.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-102) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money in the market is backing the Under while the public is betting the Over according to Pregame.com.
Typically, in sports betting, it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.
Furthermore, the most runs Gibson has allowed in a start for the Phillies was the 3 earned runs he surrendered in his last outing against Arizona. I’m expecting him to put together a quality start against an Arizona lineup that has the fourth-fewest wRC+ in MLB.
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