The Arizona Diamondbacks (26-29) and Cincinnati Reds (18-35) swing into a 4-game set Monday. The contest at Great American Ball Park is slated for a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting – Arizona won last year’s season series 5-1 after Cincinnati took the 1st game in extra innings.
The Diamondbacks continue a trip that opened at the Pittsburgh Pirates with a win followed by back-to-back losses. They have scuffled on offense all season. Their .677 OPS ranks 20th in the league; they own a mere .659 mark over their last 10 games.
Cincinnati is coming off a shaky 4-game home series against the Washington Nationals. The Reds lost 3 of 4 as their pitchers struggled with a 5.25 ERA.
Diamondbacks at Reds projected starters
LHP Madison Bumgarner vs. RHP Hunter Greene
Bumgarner (2-4, 3.31 ERA) is tabbed for his 12th start of the season. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 54 1/3 IP.
- Clocked a 6.00 ERA (18 IP, 12 ER) over last 3 starts in May but opened June with a solid effort in 6-0 home loss to Atlanta Braves Wednesday (6 IP, 2 ER)
Greene (2-7, 6.19 ERA) makes his 11th start. The highly-touted rookie has a 1.52 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 through 48 IP.
- Yielded 9 ER over last 8 2/3 IP over 2 starts
- Allowed 2.8 home runs per 9 innings and allowed barrel contact on 12.2% of balls in play
Diamondbacks at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1:58 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+145) | Reds +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Diamondbacks at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Diamondbacks 4
Money line
BET REDS (-115) with a 0.5-UNIT WAGER – a $100 average bettor should wager $57.50 to profit $50.
In a small sample, the right-handed Greene has been tough on lefty bats, and that’s a key against a left-leaning Arizona batting order. However, Greene has been undone by a high (and somewhat unlucky?) 22.4% home-run rate on fly balls.
Bumgarner has been aided by a hard-to-replicate .235 batting average on balls in play. So, the starter comparison likely overrates the Snakes. Peg the bullpens as being an outright but under-the-radar Cincy advantage.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS on Reds +1.5 (-180), which is too much juice.
However, the alternate line of CINCINNATI -1.5 (+165) is a solid price and worth a 0.7-UNIT play.
The Reds – winners of just 18 games overall – are 7-2 across their last 9 series openers.
Over/Under
Enough signals flipping back and forth over this run total. MOVE ALONG, and look for better angles elsewhere. PASS.
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