Are we certain Jayson Tatum will ink a max extension this offseason?

We’re almost certain he’ll get one; the question being asked is whether he’ll sign it once it’s in front of him with the cap likely to drop.

Last week, after ESPN’s Brian Windhorst had his comments about Boston Celtics All-Star forward Jayson Tatum aggregated without their full context, more than a few chuckles were had about what to many seemed a foregone conclusion.

Those comments, which saw Windhorst affirm the likelihood of the Duke product getting a maximum extension in the offseason, do seem to state the obvious, but the ESPN analyst’s full statement was a bit more nuanced than that.

“If Jayson Tatum is the superstar that they envisioned … we could see glory days for the Celtics again,” he explained on Sportscenter. “But it’s very much up in the air, and I’m going to tell you, they’re going to have to pay him like it, because after this season ends, he is going to get most likely a max contract.”

Now, “get” and “sign” are two very different things; more on that shortly.

And the offer still hinges on whether the first-time All-Star can support the level of play we saw from him in February and early March. There are lots of reasons to believe he can — but how are those without green-tinted lenses feelling about the idea?

The Celtics Wire’s sister site HoopsHype published a piece by Alex Kennedy that took a look at exactly that, and while the position taken by most probably isn’t a revelation in that Boston ought to offer the Missourian a maximum extension, there were some wrinkles worth relating.

Tatum’s extension would be worth between $181.25 million to $217.5 million in pre-pandemic numbers (the actual figure will likely be less given the losses incurred by COVID-19), a final number pending the revenue the league can make up in the so-called ‘Orlando Bubble’ at the end of July.

While none of the front office experts interviewed believed there was a chance the Celtics could end up trying to squeeze such an important player for their future, there was a belief incentives could make up at least part of the St. Louis native’s compensation package.

“I think he is getting a max extension,” shared one fellow Eastern Conference GM.

“That may be one where you have some incentives in the deal; I mean, it’s not like he’s LeBron James or Giannis Antetokounmpo. But he’s pretty close to being a Top 20 player, if he isn’t already, and he’s still so young. Usually, you’re trying to keep goodwill with a player like that.”

“Maybe it’ll be a max deal with certain likely bonuses – some fairly attainable incentives in there – but I think it’ll be a max deal. If that ends up being below the max, I’d be very, very surprised,” they added.

Two-decade front office veteran-turned-ESPN analyst Bobby Marks agreed; “I think they’ll give him a blank check.”

“I think we saw with the extension that Boston gave Jaylen Brown, which wasn’t the full max, they gave themselves a little bit of cap flexibility because they knew that Jayson’s [extension] was coming up next.”

However, that doesn’t mean the Celtics may not get themselves a bargain.

With temporarily-depressed cap figures likely to drop in the short term but rise in a season or two once the chaos created by the pandemic subsides, Boston could find themselves with a slightly below-market value deal for a player of Tatum’s caliber.

“The only reason that Tatum wouldn’t sign an extension is because there’s uncertainty as far as what that 2021 salary cap is going to be at, and his salary would be based on a percentage of the cap [if he signs] …  [Alternatively, Tatum could] do a one-year deal in 2021 and then, hopefully, the cap goes back up in 2022.”

Whatever ends up happening, it’s all but certain a contract guaranteeing generational wealth will be put in front of him during the offseason between this and the 2020-21 season.

The scenario described by Marks isn’t out of the realm of plausibility, but hopefully enough revenue is recouped that the dip in salary won’t be enough to force the issue.

If the drop is major, don’t be surprised to see something like what Marks describes being agreed to come late October.

As with much in the world today, all we can do for now is wait and see.

[lawrence-related id=36639,36581,36101,36093]