The Green Bay Packers are at a crossroads as a franchise. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the soon-to-be four-time NFL MVP, is starting the process of determining his football future – more specifically, whether he wants to stay in Green Bay, ask for a trade or retire – after a stunning loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the division round of the NFC playoffs.
His decision will re-write the future of the team both in the short and long term.
The Packers want Rodgers back. Or at least they are saying they do publicly. The 38-year-old quarterback has led the Packers to three-straight 13-win seasons and is about to win his second-straight MVP award after tossing 37 touchdown passes and four interceptions in 2021. Obviously, the Packers aren’t going to boot a player of his caliber out the door.
But the decision is also out of the team’s hands in many ways. Rodgers has to decide if he wants to keep playing, and even if he does, there’s no guarantee he wants to continue on in Green Bay, where – while relationships with key figures have been mended over the last six months – the team has ultimately fallen short of the Super Bowl despite everything lining up almost exactly right.
It’s possible he wants to come back for another year and give it one more try with as many cast members from the last three years as possible. It’s possible Rodgers wants to be done with football and move on to the next phase in his life. It’s also possible he wants a fresh start in a new NFL city.
Whatever he chooses, the Packers could be in a good spot as a franchise.
In the first scenario, the Packers would get Rodgers back for another year on a restructured deal, and then do everything in their power to keep the key pieces of the team together and take another swing at a Super Bowl run in 2022. As heartbreaking as the playoff losses have been the last three years, no option gives the Packers a better chance at competing for a title next season.
Of course, losing Rodgers would be a massive blow. But losing him would create opportunities for the Packers to quickly re-stabilize as a franchise, assuming the right decisions are made after he departs.
In the retirement scenario, the Packers would lose Rodgers but gain considerable cap space. As Joel Corry of CBS Sports outlined here, Rodgers picking retirement would almost certainly come with an agreement to help the Packers in their short-term cap situation via a contract restructure. He’d stay on the roster until July, pushing some of the dead cap charge to 2023, and the Packers would get a significant amount of financial freedom.
In the trade scenario, the Packers would lose Rodgers but gain cap space and significant draft capital. Trading him would create almost $20 million in new cap space – even with a massive dead cap charge – and the acquiring team would almost certainly send several high draft choices to Green Bay. Given to the right talent evaluator, a mix of cap space and draft capital can reshape a franchise overnight.
Rodgers holds the cards here but the team probably doesn’t hate its position currently. Either Rodgers, the soon-to-be back-to-back MVP, comes back in 2022, or the Packers move forward with either a significant amount of financial freedom or a mix of financial freedom and draft capital.
The wildcard here is obviously Jordan Love, the team’s 2020 first-round pick. He’s played in two preseason games and parts of three regular-season games. He hasn’t lit the world on fire in any appearance as a professional but he’s still young and raw and developing, so any scenario is still on the table.
For Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst, he’s either getting a Hall of Fame quarterback back for another year or he’s getting a favorable situation to build around the guy he moved up to draft in the first round in 2020.
There are advantages and risks to each scenario. Rodgers might be great in 2022, but bringing him back for another year could endanger the future, and there’s no guarantee the Packers will be a Super Bowl-caliber team next season. Losing Rodgers might create immediate help on the books and in the draft war room, but none of that really matters if the quarterback position isn’t any good.
This crossroads could be a win-win for the Packers. It could also be a lose-lose. Rodgers’ decision on his future will kickstart the process; every decision made after will determine where the Packers go as a franchise. If done correctly, the team can benefit no matter which direction Rodgers goes.