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College Football News bowl projections: APR rankings. What losing teams still have a chance?
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So you think your 4-7 team is out of the bowl picture?
So you think you’re not going to have any swag-bag fun if your 5-6 team loses this weekend?
Just wait … you still have hope.
Welcome to the very quirky, very strange world of the APR rankings as the way college football fills its bowl slots if there aren’t enough eligible teams.
To whiteboard this, a team becomes bowl eligible if it wins six games, as long as there’s only one win over an FCS team. A bowl game has to take a team with six or more wins first, at least according to its conference bowl tie-ins. After that, if there are any open slots and no more available teams, the next-teams up go by the Academic Progress Rates.
The APR is a measurement of the improvements and academic success for the 2017-2018 school year. It has nothing to do with how good a football team is this season, but this is the deal.
So, again, if there aren’t enough teams that finish with a bowl-eligible six wins, the teams that finish 5-7 are allowed to be taken based on the APR.
Just in case you’re totally lost right now, here’s where to go to dive deeper …
– 2019 APR Rankings | APR by conference
– 2019-2020 College Bowl Tie-Ins by Conference
– CFN Latest Bowl Projections
Now, here’s why this matters.
There are 78 available slots for the 39 bowl games. At the immediate moment there are 73 bowl eligible teams, so obviously there are currently five openings.
Going into this weekend there are 12 teams with 5-6 records. If more than five of them win, there won’t be enough bowl games for all of the eligible teams. But if there aren’t five winners, then there will be a few openings.
Here’s where those 12 teams stand and what their chances are to get that sixth win – and here’s who you need to root against if your 4-7 or 5-6 team has a high APR.
5-7 Teams That Will Be Bowl Eligible With A Win
Boston College at Pitt -9
Cal at UCLA -2.5
Kent State at Eastern Michigan -5.5
Michigan State -21.5 at Maryland
Mississippi State -3 vs. Ole Miss
Nebraska at Iowa -5
North Carolina -8 at NC State
Ohio -27.5 at Akron
Oregon State at Oregon -17.5
TCU -12.5 at West Virginia
Troy at Appalachian State -13
ULM at Louisiana -21
Let’s add one more special case to the mix. Missouri -11.5 at Arkansas. At the moment, Mizzou isn’t eligible to go to a bowl due to NCAA sanctions, but the NCAA is looking into – and taking its sweet time – possibly changing this.
There are only four favorites out of the 12 teams that need a win this weekend. There will be upsets, and there’s a strong chance that at least five teams win and the bowl problem is solved. However, if fewer than five teams win, it comes down to the APR.
Which teams are in line for a bowl game because their respective players went to class a few years ago? Here’s who’s still alive …
APR Rankings For Bowl Eligibility
The teams below are the ones in the mix if the APR factor kicks in.
If a team is 4-7 and wins this weekend to get to 5-7, it’s in the APR eligibility world. A 4-7 team is out with a loss.
Again, if the 5-6 teams on this list win, they’re eligible. But if any of them lose, there’s still the lifeline of the APR ranking.
LONG-winded article way of saying … if there aren’t enough bowl eligible teams to fill out the 78 slots, this would be the pecking order. The number in parentheses is the APR ranking of the school overall, followed by the APR score, followed by record.
– 2019 APR Rankings | APR by conference
1. (3) Duke 992 (4-7)
Duke vs. Miami -8.5
2. (8) Boston College 989 (5-6)
Boston College at Pitt -9
3. (15) Stanford 986 (4-7)
Stanford vs. Notre Dame -16.5
4. (22) Middle Tennessee 982 (4-7)
Middle Tennessee at WKU -9.5
5. (28) Ohio 981 (5-6)
Ohio -27.5 at Akron
6. (38) Ole Miss 978 (4-7)
Mississippi State -3 vs. Ole Miss
7. (41) Nebraska 977 (5-6)
Nebraska at Iowa -5
8. (43) Mississippi State 976 (5-6)
Mississippi State -3 vs. Ole Miss
9. (54) Oregon State 971 (5-6)
Oregon State at Oregon -17.5
Any team lower than this in the APR Rankings is out, considering there would be at least five teams above finishing 5-7.
– 2019-2020 College Football Conference Bowl Tie-Ins
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