Anatomy of a wild-card win: In Josh Allen, the Bills must trust

Josh Allen has earned the trust of his coaches this season due to his play. That might bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo.

The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East for the first time in 25 years, finishing with a 13-3 record and earning the second-overall seed in the conference. However, their goals are much higher. If the Bills are going to reach those lofty expectations they’ll need to start with a win this weekend over the Indianapolis Colts. How that accomplished might come down to a phrase that a few years ago, heck even a few months ago, might have sounded outlandish.

They’ll need to trust Josh Allen.

Think back to when he was drafted, and what was written about him by so many, including this author. There were skeptics, those questioning his ability to play at a high level in the NFL. Those skeptics grew louder after a rookie season where Allen struggled. Yes the talent was there, but with the rest of the Bills’ roster looking strong, was he a talented quarterback waiting to break out, or the anchor holding the team back.

Then there was last season, when Buffalo took another step forward and earned a playoff birth. Yet think to that Wild-Card game, when you saw Allen running around like a child on Christmas morning, throwing scramble drill vertical routes to his triple-covered fullback. Was this truly going to be the savior for the Bills?

Then think back to the start of this season. Expectations were still high around the Bills, but if there was a question mark it was the quarterback. Could Allen be good enough for this team to get over the hump?

Question, answered.

Allen was more than good enough this season, he played at an MVP level and made the leap from “quarterback you win with” to “quarterback you win because of.” Teams had to try and find ways to slow him down, and they could not. Allen had an answer for anything that defenses threw at him, and perhaps a Week 16 demolishing of Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots – a defense that had given him fits in the past – is a prime example of the strides he took this season.

So let’s work through that season a bit, starting with a win early in the year against the Miami Dolphins. This video is a breakdown of Allen working the middle of the field on crossing routes, something that has become a staple of the Bills offense:

As you see in this video, Allen’s ability to layer throws into the middle of the field was a huge sign of things to come. That was a massive question mark about him coming out of Wyoming, and he showed early this season an ability to answer that question.

Then there was this outing against the Las Vegas Raiders, where Allen displayed more of the touch necessary to attack defenses, as well as the ability to move defenders with his eyes and his mind (more on that in a bit):

You saw more of that ability to manipulate defenders in this win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, particularly on the third play broken down in this clip, a touchdown to Gabriel Davis:

When the Bills beat the Denver Broncos a few weeks ago to clinch the division, you could see the power of this fully assembled quarterback. Allen is playing in rhythm even when working through multiple progression reads, a huge sign of his development. And the touchdown that splits the safeties here – where he uses his eyes to influence the safeties – is a thing of beauty:

That leads us to the game against the Patriots. Week 16, in Foxborough, a chance to perhaps put the stamp on the season. As you will see in the first two plays broken down, Allen is tasked with manipulating a defender.

But not any old defender. Devin McCourty, one of the best safeties in the league.

Allen does it with ease:

Think about what those first two throws represent for a moment. The growth in Allen to the point where he is trusted to play the cat-and-mouse game against McCourty, and win.

But that is how far he has come, shutting people like me up along the way, leaving us to simply mutter “this freakin’ guy” as he carves up another team. To see a quarterback viewed by skepticism by so many, trusted to make plays like this against one of the game’s best, shows the development from him, and the trust by his coaches in him.

That trust needs to continue. If the Bills are going to win this weekend, and beyond, the trust that Josh Allen has earned from his coaches will be why.