Anatomy of a Super Bowl Win: Why a scrambling Mahomes isn’t the Bills’ biggest problem

The myth about Patrick Mahomes is that he’ll kill you if you let him out of the pocket. The truth is, Mahomes is evil no matter where he is.

Before we get started on this particular tape/stat study, let’s disabuse ourselves of one notion: Patrick Mahomes is not entirely reliant on his wheels to make plays. It’s a common narrative some like to attach to legitimate running quarterbacks, but it doesn’t apply to Mahomes. In the 2020 regular season, per Sports Info Solutions, Mahomes completed 316 of 455 passes for 3,802 yards, 1,810 air yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, a passer rating of 105.4 — good for eighth-best in the league among quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps from the pocket — and an EPA of 91.8, good for third-best in the league behind Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers.

So, there’s that. But there’s also the fact that this season, when he left the pocket, Mahomes was an absolute cyborg. An exaggeration? Not really. When he left the pocket in the regular season, Mahomes completed 74 of 132 passes for 938 yards, 632 air yards, 16 touchdowns, no interceptions, a passer rating of 118.0. and an EPA of 26.1. Only Baker Mayfield had more yards and more air yards outside the pocket, and only Deshaun Watson had a better passer rating. Other than that, Mahomes led the league in every category. Watson and Russell Wilson each threw 12 touchdowns outside the pocket, and Watson threw one pick, while Wilson threw five. With 10 touchdowns outside the pocket, Aaron Rodgers was the only quarterback to put up double-digits.

Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, who now has to deal with this in the AFC Championship game, is well aware of the threat.

So, that story sets up well. Here’s the issue: Mahomes outside the pocket wasn’t the Bills’ biggest problem earlier this season. Not even close.

In the Chiefs’ 26-17 Week 6 win, Mahomes left the pocket as a passer just four times, completing two passes for 31 yards. From the pocket, he completed 19 of 22 passes for 179 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a passer rating of 130.9, and an EPA of 5.7. Both touchdowns were to Travis Kelce, and both saw Kelce exploiting voids in Buffalo’s zone coverage.

There was this 11-yarder in the first quarter…

And this 12-yarder in the second quarter.

So… even when you keep Mahomes in the pocket, it’s still a problem. If you’re prone to giving up big plays in the passing game, it’s a real problem. If you’re playing a ton of Cover-4 against him as the Bills did, it’s an exponential problem. The Bills played quarters on 15 of Mahomes’ dropbacks in Week 6, allowing 11 completions for 140 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.

Mahomes threw twice as many touchdown passes (eight) of 20 or more air yards in the pocket than he did outside the pocket this season. The only positive difference for the Bills are the two picks he gave up on those types of throws inside the pocket. One against Xavien Howard of the Dolphins in Week 14, in which Howard made an incredible play against Tyreek Hill…

And one, more improbably, against Raiders safety Jeff Heath in Week 5.

So, where does that leave the Bills in their quest to contain Mahomes? In the pocket, no good. Outside the pocket, no good. Their preferred zone coverages, really no good. Mahomes isn’t Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, where you can muddy the picture with spot-drop coverages and hope to get away with it.

I’ve already detailed how Buffalo’s defense can steal picks from Mahomes if they employ late jumps in coverage…

Anatomy of a Super Bowl Berth: How the Bills can fool Patrick Mahomes in the red zone

…and I’ll add pressure without blitzing to the mix. Mahomes has been evil against the blitz as long as he’s been in the league, as detailed by Next Gen Stats through the 2019 season:

But as Kansas City’s offensive line has lost the war of attrition in the second half of the season, Mahomes has been less explosive and more vulnerable as a passer when pressured. Since Week 10 and through the Chiefs’ divisional round win over the Browns, Mahomes has completed just 43 of 91 passes under pressure for 586 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 70.1. The Bills’ blitz rate of 35.8% is the eighth-highest in the NFL, but their pressure rate of 21.0% is among the NFL’s least impressive, tied with the Browns and Panthers for eighth-worst.

So, get pressure without blitzing, and be more aggressive in your coverages than the Chiefs might expect. Sounds easier than it is, but if the Bills want to advance to their first Super Bowl since 1993, they must worry less about Patrick Mahomes outside the pocket, and more about creating an environment in which it’s just uncomfortable for Mahomes to throw the ball at all.