General sports media likes to tell people what the spread for an upcoming game is, they do not always explain the ways that it has moved and what that can tell us.
The Colorado Buffaloes opened as 6-point favorites in their matchup at home against the Arizona Wildcats this weekend. That line currently sits at -6.5 at Tipico Sportsbook and has fluctuated anywhere as low as -4 and -7.5 on other sportsbooks.
So why all the movement throughout the week when oddsmakers seem to have had a pretty good read on this game by opening the line at -6? Public perception.
The “sharp bettors” (high rollers that typically bet early in the week or right before kickoff) tend to lean towards home teams in college football, which is why there was money flowing in on Colorado early. They also tend to remember the bigger games, there were a lot of eyeballs on CU’s matchup against Texas A&M and we all know what A&M just did this past weekend.
There was also the news this week that Arizona quarterback Jordan McCloud is out for the season with an injury. Injuries, especially to starting quarterbacks, tend to have an impact on the line.
But then we hit a key number. And it takes a lot for oddsmakers to move a line around a key number. Once the spread got to 7.5 points, money started flooding in on the Wildcats. Currently, 67% of the bets and 76% of the money is on Arizona according to some popular betting information websites.
This situation makes the oddsmakers move the line back down to where it sits now at 6.5 and where I expect it to sit for the rest of the week.
It’s important to note, there isn’t an exact science to setting the opening point spread on a given week. It’s very similar to how all of us look at games, oddsmakers have a certain idea about how good teams are, they open the line and allow the public to balance the line to where it should be for the week. In this case, the oddsmakers got it right at 6 or 6.5 points.
All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook.
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