Whew. We made it. The 2020 season finally kicks off Thursday, so we’ve reached the point whereby we can dispose of the offseason roster-building theory and esoteric data debates. Now, the abstract becomes practical. The bell will ring whistle will blow, and Mike Tyson is throwing punches Za’Darius Smith is sacking quarterbacks.
So what will the Green Bay Packers look like in 2020? We’re going to take a quick dive into the machinations most likely to tilt this team in one direction or the other.
The floor (that doesn’t include a long-term injury at quarterback): 8-8
How it happens
While 2016 saw some of Aaron Rodgers’ best work during his run-the-table stretch, Rodgers’ gradual decline in play arguably began in 2015, a year removed from his 2014 MVP season. If you may recall, Rodgers, sans Jordy Nelson, found himself with few trustworthy weapons and, to survive, leaned heavily into sandlot-style football and some well-executed gimmickry via hard counts. That was all well and good when it worked, but it cast a mold Rodgers struggled to break. Aside from the magical stretch in ’16, Rodgers just hasn’t consistently played like his 2009-2014 self. His accuracy has dropped, his footspeed has declined; he’s been too quick to scramble, disrupting the rhythm of the play, and he all but avoids the middle of the field. He’s still a quality quarterback, but the Packers simply don’t have the horses to get by with above-average quality. They need elite quarterback play. If the trend continues, it’ll be the first and biggest red flag for a middling season.
The Packers also feature an offensive line that is, if we’re being pessimistic, volatile on the right side. While Billy Turner seems to be penciled in as the starter, neither Turner nor offseason signee Rick Wagner appeared to properly fill Bryan Bulaga’s shoes. Perhaps Rodgers improves, but if the right side of the line bleeds like a sieve, it might not matter.
Which brings us to the weapons. Davante Adams and Aaron Jones make for an excellent one-two punch, but every one after that is a giant question mark. If Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, et al. can’t take advantage of what is expected to be lighter coverage, then offensive production will be an uphill battle.
On defense, there are a few areas to consider. First, it could be difficult to reproduce the 25 turnovers the team created last year. Combined with Rodgers’ tendency to protect the football, the Packers’ turnover differential was the third-best mark in the league in 2019. With that context alone, there’s reason to believe the Packers will regress in this all-too-important statistical category. From a personnel standpoint, Chandon Sullivan, one of the team’s greenest defensive backs, will replace their longest-tenured in Tramon Williams. The defensive line is thin after Kenny Clark. The edge rushers are excellent at the top, but they’re vulnerable given their lack of depth.
The Packers escaped injuries last year and also avoided Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton, and Matthew Stafford, among others. They won a bunch of close games. Such luck is unlikely to repeat itself.
If a few of these dominos fall, the Packers could be looking at a disappointing season in 2020.
The ceiling: 12-4
How it happens:
I’ll be honest: I’m fairly bullish about this Packers team, and it centers on one tidbit of news during camp. After a slow start, Rodgers started to turn it on, When asked why that might be, he talked about how he went back and looked at some tape of himself in 2010. Since that point, he’s been razor-sharp in camp.
Though he didn’t say what he specifically worked on, his 2010 tape is a masterclass in playing quarterback, and the biggest digression between 2010 Rodgers and 2019 Rodgers is the quickness with which he played within the pocket. Peak Rodgers didn’t just play quarterback; he was the conductor of a well-timed, precise orchestra. Aside from heavier legs, there aren’t many other physical indicators that suggest Rodgers can’t rediscover a facsimile of his younger self. He’s the smartest player on the field, he can still throw the football over them mountains, and, he can be as accurate as any when he sets his feet and throws with conviction. The reality is that Rodgers is still the biggest change agent on this entire roster. If the Packers get pre-2015 Rodgers, it won’t matter much who the second or third wide receivers are. The offense will hum, in rhythm, on time.
Outside of Rodgers, there is a plausible argument that offensive improvement will come by way of having a second year in LaFleur’s system. It wasn’t the long ago that Kyle Shanahan (with LaFleur as his understudy), coordinated one of the most prolific NFL offenses in football in his second season with the Atlanta Falcons in 2016. Now, LaFleur is in his second season with an offense coordinated by a veteran quarterback with an established star wide receiver and multiple running backs with diverse skill sets.
The Packers’ offseason approach wasn’t well-liked by most of the media; regardless, their aims are transparent. They want to build a team similar to a Kyle Shanahan juggernaut, inspired (partially) by the ’16 Falcons, but specifically the current Niners squad. Josiah Deguara is their Kyle Jusczcyk. Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, A.J. Dillon, and Tyler Ervin are their Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman or Raheem Mostert, Matt Brieda, and, well, Tevin Coleman. They want to win with play-action. They want to beat you on the ground. In essence, a razor-sharp Rodgers should make defensive coordinators hesitate to load the box to stop the run. All in all, a sharper 12 and some maturity in the system can keep this team from regressing in any significant way.
12-4 is still very optimistic. Considering the difficulty of their schedule, if this team finishes 12-4, then Rodgers is playing MVP-level football and the defense never skipped a beat (and even improved against the run). In all likelihood, the 2020 Packers finish somewhere around 11-5, but they’re a better all-around team than the 2019 iteration. They just don’t catch as many breaks. Even so, they’re playoff-bound.
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