Even though most fans prefer to avoid the topic entirely, the playoffs remain a possibility for this 6-7 Atlanta Falcons team. By using FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL predictor, we can see the playoff chances of each team based on their remaining games.
Obviously, the best chance the Falcons have to make the postseason is to win their final four games. This would include upset wins over San Francisco and Buffalo and would put the team at 10-7 on the year.
If all favorites in Week 15 were to win, excluding 49ers, then a Falcons win in San Francisco would increase Atlanta’s playoff chances from 12 percent to 39 percent. While a loss to the 49ers would drop the Falcons’ chances way down to just three percent.
But what if the Falcons were to only lose to San Francisco?
A loss to San Francisco isn’t the end of the world. Considering the Eagles and Football Team still have to play each other twice and Dallas once more, there are still opportunities for results to swing in Atlanta’s favor. What the Falcons need is for Washington and Philadelphia to split their series and each lose another game to either Dallas or New York.
Using the above method of selecting favorites, FiveThirtyEight projects the two teams to split their series with the Eagles also losing to Dallas and Washington dropping games to both Dallas and New York. If either team were to go 3-1, they would take the edge over Atlanta due to head-to-head tiebreakers.
There is a scenario where either Washington or Philadelphia sweep the other and the Falcons can still make the postseason. Whichever team sweeps the series, must lose their other two games in the process.
Additionally, Atlanta will need to see the Vikings drop two of their remaining four games. This is also possible considering they play the Rams and Packers — both are projected as losses — in the middle of two games against the Bears. Seeing the Vikings go 8-9 is a real possibility.
Losing to Buffalo offers a similar outcome, but can still provide a path to the postseason.
Once again, using the criteria from above of following the weekly favorites excluding Atlanta, a Falcons loss to Buffalo wouldn’t kill their chances as long as they can win the other three games. This is aided by the 49ers also losing to the Titans and/or Rams in addition to an already established loss against the Falcons. If the 49ers were to also finish the season 3-1, then the chances Atlanta makes the postseason hinges back on the scenarios listed above between Washington, Philadelphia, and Minnesota.
Play with the different FiveThirtyEight playoff scenarios yourself by clicking here.
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