If four weeks time, the 2021 NFL Draft will have come and gone. And when the dust settles, the Miami Dolphins will have a new collection of talents that be ready to help push the team to new heights in 2021 and beyond. But the details of who the Dolphins should pick isn’t a riddle that seems to have a consensus. Should the Dolphins draft a familiar face for Tua Tagovailoa? Or do solutions from elsewhere across the landscape offer the Dolphins a greater chance of successes for both their young quarterback and the team in general?
According to the latest mock draft, which comes from NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund, perhaps avoiding Alabama Crimson Tide prospects is the way to go. Frelund’s mock, which is rooted in analytics and seeks to maximize wins in 2021, has the Dolphins landing one prospect on each side of the ball with their two first-round picks.
No. 6 overall — TE Kyle Pitts, Florida Gators
Pitts is generally considered to be the best “non-quarterback” in the 2021 NFL Draft, so for the Dolphins to go best player available at No. 6 would be a major win for the Dolphins. The selection of Pitts is boosted by Miami’s trade down strategy, which is where Frelund heaped her praise for how the Dolphins approached the situation.
“A good strategy note based on the Fins’ recent trades: selecting just three slots lower generates a huge return. Sure, it may tip their hand that quarterback is not a focus in this draft, but it provides a ton of flexibility,” wrote Frelund.
“Just to add context, let’s do the trade-chart math: If you use the Jimmy Johnson chart, which is basically the gold standard, the third overall pick is worth 2,200 points, while the sixth is 1,600. So the difference is 600. Guess which pick is valued at 600? Pick 31 (second-to-last in Round 1). Mr. Grier, if you’re reading this (and I hope you are, because that would be really cool), well done.”
No. 18 overall — DE Jaelan Phillips, Miami Hurricanes
The decision to draft Phillips is mainly rooted in what Frelund’s figures will help the Dolphins the most. In the majority of mock drafts, the Dolphins are pegged RB Najee Harris at No. 18 overall — but interestingly enough Frelund’s mock doesn’t put any running backs in the 1st-round at all. The value of a pass rusher, especially one as talented as Phillips, is hard to find complaints about at No. 18 overall.