MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 307 main event: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree (ESPN+).

Alex Pereira UFC 307 preview

Staple info:

Record: 11-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC
Height: 6’4″ Age: 37 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 80″
Last fight: TKO win over Jiri Prochazka (June 29, 2024)
Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Garage (Danbury, Conn.)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC light heavyweight champion
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ 5x Glory middleweight and light heavyweight titles
+ Pro kickboxing record: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)
+ Brazilian jiiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
^ Superb proprioception and accuracy
+ Devastating left hook and right cross
^ Times splits and counters well
+ Dangerous knees and leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations
+ Serviceable grappling game
+/-1-0 against dedicated UFC-level southpaws

Khalil Rountree UFC 307 preview

Staple info:

Record: 14-5 MMA, 9-5 UFC
Height: 6’1″ Age: 34 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76.5″
Last fight: TKO win over Anthony Smith (Dec. 9, 2023)
Camp: Syndicate MMA (Las Vegas)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter: Season 23” Finalist
+ Amateur MMA titles (at middleweight and light heavyweight)
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
^ 3rd most knockdowns in UFC light heavyweight history
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Shows pacing and improvements
+ Dangerous left hand and right hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes off the breaks
+ Serviceable wrestling and grappling
^ Mainly focuses on defense
+ Ferocious ground striker

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree point of interest: The cost of counters

Jun 29, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alex Pereira (red gloves) fights Jiri Prochazka (blue gloves) during UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The main event for UFC 307 features a lightweight heavyweight title fight between two men who are familiar with the cost of counters.

Although many will immediately point to the counter left hook, it is ultimately the proprioception of [autotag]Alex Pereira[/autotag] that makes him so accurate and dangerous in all that he does.

Whether he’s hitting his opposition with surprising spin kicks or splitting right hands inside of the danger zone, Pereira demonstrates a preternatural instinct to find and hit targets in motion. This could also be why his defensive layers can seem lackadaisical at times, but the Brazilian does a decent job of playing off his lowered guard and purposefully slow prods in order to invite opponents into awkwardly angled counters.

And when Pereira is the one pushing opponents on the back foot and towards a barrier, he wields one of the more understated jabs in MMA.

Already submitted my #UFC287 breakdown for this week, but couldn’t help throw this video together after hearing @TeddyAtlasReal talk about the jabbing dynamic between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya.

Tacked on George Foreman-Gullick to help illustrate his Pereira comparisons: pic.twitter.com/Clws9Re94N

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 4, 2023

Pereira’s kicks, though improved (particularly when being used for returns), also come with an awkward kicking gate in tow, almost as if he’s trying to stay planted for counter-hook attachments at all times.

When facing southpaws, Pereira will still target his opposition’s lead leg, but isn’t beyond attacking the rear extremity a la Sittichai Sangkhachot. Pereira will still utilize his lead hand effectively against lefties, showing a knack for finding a southpaw’s blindspot with either left hooks or crafty kicks.

Alex Pereira, who faces Jamahal Hill at #UFC300, has a limited sample against southpaws in both kickboxing & MMA.

Poatan will still jab the head & body as well as attack both legs in the open stance (targeting the rear Sittichai style), but leans more on countering traps in MMA: pic.twitter.com/XNfT5bUdLd

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 11, 2024

Nevertheless, Pereira is not beyond eating classic southpaw kicks and counters, so he’ll need to respect what’s coming back at him on the feet.
Enter [autotag]Khalil Rountree[/autotag].

The closest thing that MMA has to the Batman character “Bane,” Rountree – despite also being a former middleweight – is one of the most imposing presences to ever step foot into the UFC’s octagon.

Two minutes of Khalil Rountree delivering violence to people #UFCVegas78 pic.twitter.com/luiu28ctKR

— caposa (@Grabaka_Hitman) August 10, 2023

Although Rountree made his name as a marauding knockout artist who ends fights quickly, the Syndicate MMA product has steadily sharpened his skills, focus and patience since taking the time to train and travel at top spots around the world.

From Rountree’s muay Thai training in Thailand to his earlier career experience at Black House MMA during the tail end of Anderson Silva’s title run, “The War Horse” brings more to the table than what his resume may present.

Now, under the care of head coach John Wood, Rountree demonstrates solid pacing improvements and much more confidence in his natural countering ability. Whether we are talking about classic southpaw counters like check hooks or left crosses, Rountree is hardwired to return with two to three strikes in tow (particularly when responding to kicks).

When working from a distance, Rountree has been a bit better about getting on his jab in recent outings. That said, the American’s kicks – both to the body and legs – remain his standout threat from range.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Sep 28, 2019; Copenhagen, DEN; Ion Cutelaba (red gloves) fights Khalil Rountree Jr. (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Royal Arena. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

With both men primarily being strikers by nature, the grappling realm becomes the most mysterious part of this matchup by default.

For my money, the key junction in this department will be the clinch. Rountree, whose lone knockout losses come in closed quarters, has made marked efforts to bolster this part of his game.

Utilizing a modified palm-to-palm grip off of tight over-under tie-ups, Rountree, accompanied by some solid head position, does a much better job at killing the space inside clinches (likely to avoid the elbows he ate from Johnny Walker).

Rountree’s defensive wrestling responses have also improved in this space, showing that he can force separations and still strike hard off the breaks. And whenever Rountree ends up on top or overhead of his opposition, the American will rain hell from above in the form of vicious soccer kicks and sledgehammer swings with his fists.

Luckily for Pereira, he has also made strides in these same categories.
Although the underhook has been a bit vacant in Pereira’s repertoire in the past, the champion has shown to use it in conjunction with his other tools more in recent fights. Pereira already works well off of collar ties and overhooks, so it’s nice to see him adding other tactics like underhooks and wrist controls as his MMA career moves on.

We haven’t had to see much of Pereira’s jiu-jitsu in the octagon, but the Brazilian has clearly been focusing on everything from his submission defense to his getups under the care of Glover Teixeira. And when “Poatan” ends up on top, his hands of stone translate seamlessly to the ground-striking aspect of MMA.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree odds

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the sitting champion, listing Pereira -520 and Rountree +350 via FanDuel.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree prediction, pick

Despite not disagreeing with Pereira being favored to retain his title, I can’t help but get the inkling that the stage has quietly been set for an upset this Saturday.

Aside from any gut feelings or the fact that this is a volatile battle between two heavy-handed strikers at the end of the day, Pereira is arguably testing his luck with the activity he’s keeping as champ. But more specifically to this matchup, I believe that Pereira could be in big trouble if he doesn’t get on his jab early and often.

Although Pereira has traditionally appeared comfortable with letting his lead hand go in open-stance affairs, it took him just over a minute to start letting jabs go against the last (and only UFC-level) dedicated southpaw he faced in Jamahal Hill.

Not only is a minute more than enough time for Rountree to remove someone from consciousness, but the American has a specific knack for countering kicks that could serve as a gateway to Pereira’s demise. For that reason, I’d be careful about backing the champion at the betting window at his current asking prices.

Even though I’m a huge fan of Pereira’s, I have more of a bias toward the Rountree side given that we ran in similar circles as kids – so fighting my urge to officially pick him here was an admittedly difficult act that came down to the wire (though I don’t hate a small wager on him at his current odds).

That said, when I set my personal biases aside, picking against the proprioception and trap-setting options of Pereira is a difficult ask given that he’s one of the few in this division who can match Rountree for speed and power.

Lead kicks from both parties will be the sneaky shots to watch out for in this fight, but I suspect that Pereira’s underrated jab will be the difference-maker, so long as he uses it. The official pick is for Pereira to weather some scary storms and potential staring contests early in order to jab his way into another left hook stoppage by the third frame.

Prediction: Pereira inside the distance

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree start time, where to watch

As the main event in Utah, Pereira and Rountree are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The main card airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and ESPN+.