Free agency approaches quickly for the Chargers, and they’ll have a lot of decisions to make. From cuts and trades to external free-agent signings, these moves could affect their draft priorities in terms of positions of need. How much financial capital they put into each position during free agency could also affect how much draft capital they’re willing to use on certain players.
This exercise could drastically change in a week or two once we know what the Chargers do in the first stage of the offseason. But with less than 50 days until the draft, here’s how I would procure the best haul from LA’s eight pre-free agency selections.
The pick here stays the same as my first mock: the best player available at a position of need, assuming the Chargers part ways with Mike Williams next week. With three quarterbacks and Marvin Harrison Jr. off the board, it’s the right move, in my opinion.
If the Chargers execute the highly speculated trade back projected by many draft analysts on draft night, the board could open up for them to take offensive line and defensive talent. But picking at five with playmakers such as Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brock Bowers here makes it feel like the Chargers have to come away with one of them.
Harrison is the best wide receiver prospect in this class, but Nabers is able to give him a run for his money. He’s ultra explosive in the open field and is a force to be reckoned with from the slot. Even though he’s not as experienced vs. press as many will point out, his skillset projects as a player that will figure that out just fine at the next level. He has great touch as a route runner and is the perfect player to add to a Chargers’ offense desperately in need of juice.
As mentioned earlier, this is a pick the Chargers are probably likely to trade out of. But if they stay at five, picking Joe Alt or a defensive player would be a misuse of capital currently. With the uncertainty amongst the teams’ pass catchers outside of Keenan Allen, drafting the 2024 version of Prime Odell Beckham Jr. seems like a good idea to me.
If the Chargers are not trading back for an impact defensive player in the first round, round two probably has to be a pick for Jesse Minter’s unit. In mock 1.0, I went with Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa in the second round. To switch it up, I took Lassiter.
There should be no explanation needed for why cornerback is an early priority roster-wise: they really don’t have a true Minter defense outside corner on the roster right now. Asante Samuel Jr. is a worthy starter if need be for 2024, but I don’t see him being part of the long-term organizational plan with the change in defensive mindset.
Even though he didn’t do the forty-yard dash and participate in some of the other drills, Lassiter still showed off his agility. Lassiter ran the best 3 cone drill amongst all corners in the class with a top-end shuttle time as well.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid mocked him to the Chargers as well in his most recent two-round draft. His ball production at Georgia speaks for itself, and he allowed an opposing completion percentage in the 30s. He’s a terrific ball tracker when playing deep. He could stand to bring the missed tackle rate down from 13.3%, but that’s not a terribly high college figure either.
Even with a signing in free agency, the Chargers need at least one corner in the first four rounds. Preferably, it should be someone with a bona fide boundary CB1 skillset.
Looking back on my mock from last month, I’m not sure I placed enough of a premium on the defensive tackle position. Minter’s defense needs a plug-and-play guy on day one. Morgan Fox is a great situational pass rusher on the cheap if the Chargers want to keep him around, but the Chargers need a true interior force for every down.
Dorlus in Round 3 is the fit for me. Dorlus is the only defensive tackle in the draft to record 40+ QB pressures in each of the last three seasons in college. He can line up at multiple positions all over the defensive line. He backed up a lot of his college production and tape with a great showing at the combine. Dorlus posted an 8.51 RAS with the second-fastest 40 times of all tackles.
When it comes to the Chargers’ cap situation, they don’t really have the flexibility to go after a big name like Christian Wilkins or Chris Jones in free agency. The cheaper tier of the market is made up of older vets. For the Chargers’ purposes, they should still sign a body there. But the draft is probably where Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh get their main IDL of the future going forward.
The Chargers need to bolster the interior offensive line, and we have yet to see what they’ll do in free agency. Options like Graham Glasgow and Mitch Morse could be had for a fairly reasonable price in free agency. However, currently, Brenden Jaimes is the only true center on the Chargers’ roster from a plug-and-play standpoint.
I have to believe they’ll address the interior offensive line at some point in free agency. Until we see exactly what they are thinking of there, I’d take Limmer out of Arkansas after back-to-back defensive selections. Limmer allowed just 12 pressures in over 800 snaps for Arkansas last year.
What makes Limmer’s 2023 tape and performance more impressive is his production despite switching positions from guard to center. Based on his athletic profile that he displayed at the combine with a 9.80 RAS score and particularly impressive 3-cone and shuttle drills, Limmer has legitimate guard-center flexibility at the next level.
Once the simulator gets past Limmer on the board, there don’t seem to be many Day 1 plug-and-play centers in the draft. Until the Chargers address center in free agency in a meaningful way, Limmer is the way to go with this selection.
Perhaps the Chargers will splurge big next week on a player like Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley. Until then, they certainly need a runner capable of carrying a decent load. Guerendo’s stock certainly went up after he tested well last week in the Combine.
With Louisville nearly doubling his workload in 2023, Guerendo didn’t miss a beat. On 132 carries, he ran for 810 yards and 234 receiving yards, along with another 234 passing yards.
For his size, Guerendo is one of the quicker backs in the draft. He just doesn’t have the college production to match some of the guys who will go in the first three or four rounds.
Greg Roman’s Baltimore teams were built on many outside zone run concepts, and the Louisville running back works best in that capacity himself.
Chargers have to address tight end in probably both free agency and the draft. Here, I went with Reiman after waiting maybe a little later at the position than the average Chargers’ mock does.
Reiman doesn’t have the most receiving production and probably won’t go that high because of it. He tested with a historically good RAS and consistently on film, he’s a great pass and run blocker.
A great in-line blocker who moves really well for his 270-pound 6’5″ frame, Reiman is a tremendous fit for a Harbaugh-Roman offense. Regardless of what they do in free agency, he’s an automatic fit.
Duke probably isn’t going to go terribly high in the draft as a five-year college player with a little bit of a limited pass-rush move skillset. But he has an absolutely relentless motor. The Kansas State product set career highs in both sacks (6.0) and tackles for loss (8.0) last season. Depending on what the Chargers do next week, EDGE could become a significant priority with decisions looming Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. But for now, both are on the roster and they add Duke.
Magee earned the second-highest athleticism score at last week’s NFL Combine. The Chargers need bodies at linebacker regardless of when they come this offseason. Particularly up close near the line of scrimmage, Magee is very instinctive and picks his moments to explode in pursuit of the quarterback or ball carrier. He’s more than likely not a starter out of the gate, but going as late as he usually does on consensus boards and mocks doesn’t make much sense to me.