The Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees will try again Tuesday after rain postponed Monday’s deciding Game 5 of their AL Division Series at Yankee Stadium. Tuesday’s first pitch is set for 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Best-of-5 series: Tied 2-2
Regular-season series: Yankees won 5-1
The Guardians blew a golden opportunity to finish off the heavily-favored Yankees in Game 4 Sunday night in Cleveland but lost 4-2. The Guardians now face the unsavory task of playing a winner-take-all game in front of a hostile New York crowd.
The Guardians already proved they can win in the Bronx. They won Game 2 there Friday 4-2, but needed 10 innings to do so.
This series has mostly been about pitching. The Yankees are averaging 3.75 runs per game (15 runs total) in this ALDS, well below their AL-leading 4.98 RPG during the regular season, while the Guardians are scoring 3.25 RPG (13 runs total), more than 1 run less than what they averaged during the regular season (4.31).
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Guardians at Yankees projected starters
TBD vs. LHP Nestor Cortes Jr.
Cleveland manager Terry Francona said in a Monday pregame interview that Monday’s scheduled starter, RHP Aaron Civale (5-6, 4.92 ERA regular season), would still get the nod Tuesday if Monday’s game was rained out. However, as of this publishing, Cleveland’s listed starter is TBD (to be determined), raising the possibility that RHP Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA) could take the hill.
Civale, who has never pitched in the postseason before, made 20 regular-season starts with a 1.19 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 97 IP. Bieber posted a 1.04 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 31 regular-season starts across 200 IP.
Bieber started Game 2 and allowed 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks with 7 strikeouts in a no-decision. So, he would be on three days rest.
- Civale 2022 vs. Yankees: 0-2, 10.00 ERA (9 IP, 10 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 9 K, .343 opponent BA, 3 HR in 2 starts
- Civale 2022 road stats: 1-3, 5.88 ERA (52 IP, 34 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 49 K, .265 opponent batting average, 6 HR in 11 starts
- Bieber career vs. Yankees (regular season): 1-1, 5.74 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 19 K in 2 starts, but none in 2022
- Surprisingly, Bieber never pitched in Yankee Stadium until Friday’s Game 2
Cortes (12-4, 2.44 ERA) was named Tuesday’s starter after Monday’s rainout, which RHP Jameson Taillon was slated to open. In 28 regular-season starts, Cortes posted a 0.92 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 158 1/3 IP. He will be on three days rest after a no-decision in Friday’s Game 2 (5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K).
- 2022 regular-season home stats: 6-1, 1.95 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 89 K, .161 opponent BA, 5 HR in 15 starts
- 2022 vs. Guardians (regular season): 1-0, 2.19 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 2 HR in 2 starts
Guardians at Yankees odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-165) | Yankees -1.5 (+127)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +107)
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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 4, Guardians 1
Moneyline
The YANKEES (-175) will win this game no matter who the Guardians’ starting pitcher is. New York avoided elimination with the Game 4 victory in Cleveland and now have the momentum. Tuesday, New York will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd hungry to see the high-octane Yankees advance.
The Guardians did a good job to win 2 games in this ALDS, but their season, unfortunately, comes to and end Tuesday night.
Run line/Against the spread
YANKEES -1.5 (+127) is worth a roll of the dice. Civale was very giving this season, especially on the road, and he could be a little rusty, too, as this will be his first outing of the preseason. Look for New York to score runs early against him.
Of course, that’s if Civale starts. If he does, he’ll likely be on a very short leash, with Bieber potentially being used out of the bullpen as it’s all hands on deck in an elimination game.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (+107) is a good play. While I expect the Yankees to do some early damage against Civale, the Cleveland bullpen has been lights out. The Guardians bullpen has yielded just 2 ER in 25 2/3 IP in the ALDS for a 0.70 ERA.
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