The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 4 of an AL Division Series at Progressive Field Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Best-of-5 series: Guardians lead 2-1
Regular-season series: Yankees won 5-1
The Guardians pulled off a 6-5 walk-off, home victory in Game 3 Saturday that will likely be remembered by Cleveland fans forever.
The Guardians trailed 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th with 1 out and no one on base. Four consecutive singles later, the deficit was cut to 5-4 and the bases were loaded. After a strikeout for the 2nd out, rookie RF Oscar Gonzalez came through again, hitting a 1-2 pitch to center for a 2-run, walk-off single. It was just 7 days earlier when he homered in the bottom of the 15th for a 1-0 walk-off, AL Wild Card Series-clinching victory vs. the Tampa Bay Rays.
Now, the Guardians are 1 win away from dispatching the Yankees and advancing to the ALCS where the top-seeded Houston Astros await.
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Yankees at Guardians projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Cal Quantrill
Cole (13-8, 3.50 ERA) made 33 regular-season starts. He had a 1.02 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 200 2/3 IP.
- Allowed just 1 ER, 4 H and 1 BB with 8 K in 6 1/3 IP in a Game 1 win in New York
- Went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and a 1.63 opponent batting average and 15 K across 12 2/3 IP in 2 starts vs. Cleveland in the regular season
Quantrill (15-5, 3.38 ERA) had a 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 186 1/3 IP in 32 regular-season starts.
- In Game 1 loss in New York: 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 4 H, 2 HR, 3 BB
- Was perfect in 19 home starts during the regular season: 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA with a .234 opponent BA in 112 1/3 IP
Yankees at Guardians odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Guardians +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+105) | Guardians +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: -101)
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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 3, Guardians 1
Moneyline
The YANKEES (-175) pulled the armored car up to Cole’s house and gave him that bag just for games like this. He was dominant in Game 1, and the pressure is ratcheted up even further here.
Unless the Guardians (+140) pull out all the stops and bring Billy Crystal out for a pregame ceremony, Cole should pitch well and remain focused for the win. It’s all on the table for Cleveland to pull the series upset, but Cole will force this series back to New York for a decisive Game 5.
Run line/Against the spread
YANKEES -1.5 (+105) is worth a small-unit play. Cole pitched the Yankees to a 4-1 win in Game 1 in the Bronx, as the Guardians just couldn’t solve the right-hander then. They’ll have difficulty at home, too, as Cole grabs the big win.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (-101) is a strong play, and the best offering on the board, especially at almost even money.
We had a total of just 5 runs in Game 1 with Cole on the mound and with pressure at an all-time high, it is likely we have another pitcher’s duel.
We had a total of just 6 runs in an extra-innings Game 2. And in Game 3, we had 11 total runs. Look for pitching and defense to reign supreme with the Bronx Bombers with their backs to the wall.
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