The Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox continue their best-of-five AL Division Series Monday at 3:37 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jose Urquidy is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 107 IP over 20 starts in the regular season.
- Allowed 5 home runs while posting a 4.96 ERA over his last three starts of the regular season.
- Clocked a 4.24 ERA over his last 34 IP away from home.
- Benefited from a .237 batting average on balls in play.
LHP Carlos Rodon is the projected starter for the White Sox. In 24 regular-season starts, Rodon went 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 132 2/3 IP.
- Making first appearance in this series. Faced 3 batters in 2020 postseason, allowing 2 ER on 1 H and 2 BB without recording an out.
- On a stretch that began with seven one-hit IP against the Astros on July 18 (0 BB, 10K) and has posted a 2.51 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over his last 43 IP at home. Also pitched at Houston June 18, allowing 1 ER in 7 IP.
- Current Houston batters own an aggregate .475 OPS against him.
Astros at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:21 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | White Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-190) | White Sox -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
White Sox 6, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
Houston took five of seven games from Chicago in the regular season before opening a 2-0 lead in this playoff series. The White Sox bounced back in Game 3 to stave off elimination with a 12-6 win Sunday.
Game 4 presents more value on the home nine. Urquidy is out too far over his skis with a surface ERA of 3.62. He hasn’t been effective of late and is a much more productive pitcher in his home yard. Rodon has been tough on Houston and his peripheral numbers are solid.
Only the Los Angeles Dodgers (58 home wins) and San Francisco Giants (54) won more home games than the Pale Hose (53) in the regular season.
TAKE CHICAGO (-130).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The White Sox can be quite average against ground-ball pitchers. That’s what Chicago saw in Games 1 and 2 against RHP Lance McCullers and LHP Framber Valdez. The Sox are a much more dangerous offense at home and against fly-ball hurlers. That was the case Sunday. It also applies in this one against Urquidy (32.2% GB rate).
Add in a bit more bullpen fatigue on the Houston side. BACK THE WHITE SOX -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under (O/U)
A PASS is suggested. Looking for a cooldown after 18 runs were scored is reasonable, but there are signals that point the other way, too.
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