The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox continue their best-of-five showdown as the American League Division Series shifts to Fenway Park for Game 3 Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The AL East champion and top-seeded Rays (100-62 regular season) took Thursday’s opener 5-0 as -165 favorites. The Red Sox (92-70), who advanced out of the AL Wild Card Game, evened this series with a 14-6 beatdown as +130 underdogs Friday.
Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen (4-0, 2.44 ERA) makes his 11th start and 21st appearance Sunday. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 59 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 7-0 victory at Houston Astros Sept. 29
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 2.30 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 0 HR, 5 BB, 14 K in three starts and two relief appearances, all in 2021
Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA regular season) makes his second start of the postseason. He posted a 1.19 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 182 1/3 IP in 32 regular-season starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 6-2 home win vs. New York Yankees in AL Wild Card Game Tuesday
- Career vs. Rays: 4-6, 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 70 2/3 IP (12 starts and two relief appearances)
Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Rays 5, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
TAMPA BAY (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Rays finished with the AL’s best road record at 48-33 and beat the Red Sox 11-8 in the regular-season series. However, the Red Sox went 49-32 at Fenway, including 5-4 vs. the Rays.
While Boston is 8-1 in Eovaldi’s last nine starts, including the Wild Card victory, Tampa Bay is 6-2 in Rasmussen’s last eight starts and 6-0 in his last six starts away from The Trop.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET TAMPA BAY -1.5 (+145) for a QUARTER UNIT.
ATS records:
- Regular season: Red Sox 84-78 | Rays 97-65
- Postseason: Red Sox 2-1 | Rays 1-1
The Rays’ regular-season ATS mark led the AL and ranked second among all 30 teams – the San Francisco Giants were No. 1 at 98-64.
Boston covered the spread in the first four games of the season’s head-to-head series, but Tampa Bay is 11-6 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 8.5 (-108) to WIN 0.3 UNITS.
O/U records:
- Regular season: Red Sox 74-85-3 | Rays 83-71-8
- Postseason: Red Sox 1-1-1 | Rays 1-1
As mentioned above, Rasmussen featured a 2.30 ERA in five outings vs. Boston this season. Meanwhile, Eovaldi posted a 2.39 ERA in four starts vs. Tampa Bay.
The Under is 6-2 in Rasmussen’s last eight starts but would be 5-3 if the line was 8.5.
As for Eovaldi, the Under is only 1-6 in his last seven home starts.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 54-31 | 23-9 | +20.797 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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