The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays open their American League Division Series Thursday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Rays won the AL East and the league’s No. 1 seed behind a 100-62 regular-season record. The Red Sox beat the Yankees 6-2 in Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game at Fenway Park.
Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA) makes his 32 start and 33rd appearance. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 157 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 1 IP in relief, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 8th inning at Washington Nationals Sunday
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-2 victory at Nationals Friday
- Career vs. Rays: 2-4, 5.21 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 13 starts
Rays LHP Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.43 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 123 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 4-3 home win vs. Yankees Friday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in three 2021 starts
Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Rays -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Rays -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Rays 5, Red Sox 2
Money line (ML)
TAMPA BAY (-160) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. The Rays won the season series vs. the Red Sox 11-8, including 7-3 at Tropicana Field. They also finished with the majors’ fourth-best home record at 52-29.
While Rodriguez won at Tampa Bay 4-0 Sept. 2 with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K, he was hammered (3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 HR) by the Rays in his next start, a 12-7 loss at Fenway Park Sept. 7.
McClanahan took the loss (5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 8 K) vs. Rodriguez Sept. 2. However, the southpaw was pretty tough in his other two outings vs. the Red Sox, going 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER).
I also expect the Red Sox to be a bit flat after Tuesday’s emotional must-win game vs. the Yankees.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET RAYS -1.5 (+125) for a HALF UNIT.
ATS records:
- Regular season: Red Sox 84-78 | Rays 97-65
- Postseason: Red Sox 1-0 | Rays 0-0
Tampa Bay’s regular-season ATS record tops the AL and ranks second in the majors (only behind the San Francisco Giants’ 98-64).
After failing to cover the spread in their first four games vs. Boston this season, Tampa Bay went 10-5 ATS in the remainder of the season series.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. 7.5 is a tricky low number. If it climbs to 8, bet Under to win a half unit.
O/U records:
- Regular season: Red Sox 74-85-3 | Rays 83-71-8
- Postseason: Red Sox 0-0-1 | Rays 0-0
All three of McClanahan’s starts vs. Boston this season cashed Under tickets – the 4-0 loss and victories of 3-2 and 2-1.
But the Under was only 1-3 in Rodriguez’s starts vs. the Rays, which included Tampa Bay wins of 12-7 and 8-4 and a Boston 9-5 victory.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 48-30 | 21-9 | +15.722 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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