The best-of-seven American League Championship Series shifts back to Texas as the Houston Astros look to finish off the Boston Red Sox Friday in Game 6. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston leads the series 3-2 after taking the last two games at Fenway Park, 9-2 Tuesday and 9-1 Wednesday.
Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA regular season) makes his fourth start and fifth appearance of the postseason. He was Game 4’s losing pitcher, entering in the ninth inning and allowing a leadoff double to SS Carlos Correa and a two-out, go-ahead single to C Jason Castro. He was then removed and Houston still added 6 more runs.
- 2021 postseason: 2-1, 5.51 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 14 H, 4 BB, 21 K in three starts and one relief appearance
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 1-2, 3.93 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.28 WHIP in six starts
Astros RHP Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.48 ERA regular season) makes his third start of the playoffs. He was Game 2’s losing pitcher, yielding a first-inning grand slam to DH J.D. Martinez and a leadoff walk in the second inning before getting removed.
- 2021 postseason: 0-1, 24.55 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 7 H, 6 BB, 5 K in two starts
- Career vs. Red Sox (regular season): 1-0, 1.29 ERA (7 IP, 1 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in one start this year, a 5-1 home win June 1
Red Sox at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Astros -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+155) | Astros +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Astros 8, Red Sox 7
Money line (ML)
BACK HOUSTON (-117) to WIN 0.3 UNITS.
Despite Boston being 10-1 in Eovaldi’s last 11 starts, including 3-0 in the postseason, the play is with the home team.
Houston is 54-31 at Minute Maid Park this year, including 3-1 in the playoffs.
The Astros lost their last home game 9-5 in Game 2. They haven’t dropped back-to-back home games since Aug. 22-23.
Houston’s bats turned it up a notch, too, in Games 4 and 5, while Boston struggled at the plate as the Astros outscored the Red Sox 18-3 and outhit them 23-8.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since the juice is a bit costly on the Astros +1.5 (-190). Plus, they’re 40-45 ATS at home.
ATS records:
- Regular season: Red Sox 84-78 | Astros 77-85
- Postseason: Red Sox 7-3 | Astros 5-4
Boston is a decent 49-36 ATS on the road, but the alternate line of Red Sox +1.5 (-205) is also too chalky.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 8.5 (-130) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager – as both clubs are on 8-0 Over runs.
O/U records:
- Regular season: Red Sox 74-85-3 | Astros 86-69-7
- Postseason: Red Sox 8-1-1 | Astros 8-1
The Over is 5-0 in this series. Even Game 4, which was tied 2-2 after eight innings, went Over with the Astros scoring 7 runs in the ninth of their 9-2 victory.
The Over is also 48-36-1 at Minute Maid Park this season.
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| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 62-42 | 26-14 | +17.636 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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