The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros continue their best-of-seven American League Championship Series Saturday at 4:20 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. In the regular season, Eovaldi went 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 182 1/3 IP over 32 starts.
- Has allowed 3 ER on 7 hits in 10 1/3 IP across two starts this postseason (1 BB, 16K).
- Posted a 3.47 ERA at home and a 4.21 figure on the road in the regular season. Owns a career road ERA of 4.54. He has allowed 6 ER in 12 career innings at Minute Maid Park.
- Current Houston batters own a high-contact aggregate .962 OPS against him. Pitched against the Astros June 9: allowed 5 ER on 11 H in 5 1/3 IP.
RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starter for the Astros. Across 30 regular-season games (28 starts), he went 11-8 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 155 1/3 IP.
- Clocked a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in 79 regular-season IP at home.
- Went 7 IP, allowing just 1 ER against Boston June 1.
- Has made one start in the playoffs, allowing 5 ER on 5 H and 3 BB in 2 2/3 IP at Chicago on Oct. 10.
Red Sox at Houston Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-180) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Red Sox 5, Astros 4
Money line (ML)
Eovaldi has been the better pitcher since Sept. 1, and he gives the Red Sox a solid chance in leveling the series at 1-1. Boston advanced to this ALCS off a September grind against top-flight foes and after defeating a tough Tampa Bay Rays squad in the Division Series. The Crimson Hose have a slight bullpen advantage.
BACK BOSTON (+110).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the juice-filled run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Boston entered this series averaging 6.4 runs per game this postseason while the Astros came in averaging 7.8. Both clubs hit right-handed pitching best, and neither bullpen is dialed in and lock-down dangerous.
Consider taking the OVER 8.5 (-120), especially on any push-back on price. A play at -110 offers solid value.
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