The Tampa Bay Rays (86-76) and the Cleveland Guardians (92-70) meet in Game 1 of an AL Wild Card Series Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 12:07 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Guardians won 4-2
The Rays limped to the finish line of the regular season, dropping 5 straight, and 7 of their final 8 games. Two of those losses came at Progressive Field in Cleveland Sept. 28-29, a pair of 2-1 setbacks. Each of the 3 meetings in that late September series were decided by 1 – Tampa Bay needed 11 innings to win the opener 6-5.
The Guardians finished up strong, winning 22 of the final 27 games to run away with the AL Central Division crown.
Cleveland will be at home this entire Wild Card Series, but that hasn’t been a good thing in recent playoff history. The Guardians have dropped 8 straight playoff games, including each of the past 4 at Progressive Field.
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Rays at Guardians projected starters
LHP Shane McClanahan vs. RHP Shane Bieber
McClanahan (12-8, 2.54 ERA) made 28 regular-season starts. He had a 0.93 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 166 1/3 IP.
- Was 3-3 with a 2.08 ERA, .167 opponent batting average and 67 K with 11 BB across 60 2/3 IP in 10 road outings in 2022
- Went 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA with 87 K across 71 2/3 IP in 12 daytime starts this season
Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.04 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 200 IP.
- Was just 5-5 with a 3.22 ERA and .223 opponent BA with 77 K across 81 IP over 13 starts at Progressive Field this season
- Posted an 8-4 record with a 3.29 ERA with 99 K across 106 2/3 IP in 17 daytime starts with 1 complete game in 2022
Rays at Guardians odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:43 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Guardians -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-240) | Guardians -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Rays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The Guardians (-125) have plenty of recent playoff history, but none of it is very good. Cleveland has dropped 8 in a row in the postseason, including the past 4 in this venue.
These teams actually faced each other in the postseason once before with Tampa Bay winning 4-0 in the 2013 AL Wild Card Game – when the format was just 1 game.
The RAYS (+100) are a strong play Friday at even-money, as the Guardians just cannot be trusted when the playoffs begin.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
However, the alternate line of RAYS -1.5 (+185) is worth a roll of the dice, although play this one very, very lightly. As mentioned, the most recent 3-game series in Cleveland between these teams saw a 1-run game in each of outing. So, tread lightly.
Over/Under
PLAY OVER 5.5 (-125).
I get that it’s the postseason, and I get that we have some tremendous pitchers on the hill, but this total is super low.
To cash on an Over 5.5, it won’t take much of a rally, even in just an inning or two, to quickly flip the total from an Under to an Over in a hurry.
The Over is 4-1 in Tampa’s past 5 road playoff games, too, and 7-3 in the past 10 overall in the postseason.
The Over is also 6-0 in Cleveland’s past 6 at home, and 5-1-1 in the past 7 postseason games, while going 4-0-1 in the previous 5 playoff games at Progressive Field.
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