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Wide receivers have been enjoying quite the offseason thus far, as a handful have gotten big-money deals that are changing the landscape of the position financially — and recent developments will no doubt have an impact on the Tennessee Titans and wide receiver A.J. Brown.
Wideouts such as the Miami Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill ($30M per year), the Las Vegas Raiders’ Davante Adams ($28M per year) and the Buffalo Bills’ Stefon Diggs ($26M per year) have each signed deals over $25 million per year.
Other wide receivers, like the Carolina Panthers’ D.J. Moore and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Chris Godwin, inked extensions paying them $20 million annually.
Even Christian Kirk received a contract from the Jacksonville Jaguars that pays him an average of $18 million per year, which was quite possibly the biggest wrecking ball to the wide receiver market.
So, where does A.J. Brown, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, fall in all of this?
Well, Spotrac estimates his new market value at a four-year, $91.9 million deal, which works out to $22.7 million annually. When the offseason began, Spotrac had Brown receiving a four-year contract worth $17.3 million per.
The new projection is likely close to what Brown will receive; however, how close to or how far north of that number he goes will greatly depend upon what he does in 2022.
There is no question how important Brown is to the Titans.
You could argue he’s their best playmaker — or at the very least, one of their best — and already one of the best receivers this franchise has ever seen. On top of that, he’s one of the premier wideouts in the NFL when healthy.
However, he has had some issues staying on the field over the last two years. After playing in all 16 games during his 1,000-yard rookie campaign, Brown hasn’t played a full slate in the two years since. He missed two games in 2020, and then another four in 2021. Adding to that, he has also exited multiple contests early.
If Brown can play a full slate, he’ll post monster numbers and easily hit that $22.7 million projection, and he’d possibly approach the contracts of Diggs, Adams and Hill, as well.
If he struggles with injury and posts numbers similar to the ones he has the past few years, that will no doubt hurt his value, but we’d still expect him to see around $20 million annually.
As a result of these two possible scenarios, the Titans might be wise not to extend him too early, as waiting could help them keep Brown at a lower cost.
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